The answer to the question is, only the Israelis know for sure. According to Micah Zenko in today’s Los Angeles Times the likelihood is high. Mr. Zenko says Iran has until late September to provide the desired response to an international proposal for stopping nuclear enrichment. Given Israel’s history of a first strike doctrine this action is definitely a real possibility.
A columnist in the Pakistani Spectator has provided some important information that would support the thought that Israel is physically positioning itself for such an attack. The unidentified “Guest Blogger” contends that “In a latest move Israel has moved two of its Saar Missile Class warships through the Suez Canal. Ten days back Israel also sailed its Dolphin class submarine, capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, to an unidentified location.”
Of course, if this is an accurate report, Iranian intelligence knows about the positioning of Israeli ships. Can we rely on Michael Oren, the new Israeli ambassador to the United States, when he said on Fareed Zakaris’s GPS that Israel would only use nuclear weapons in response to another nation’s first use? Frankly I doubt it.
Although there appears to be more peaceful times in Israel, its last two wars have ended in a draw. Perhaps that was enough for Israel’s enemies.
Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons now. I am guessing that Israel will strike Iran if it believes there is a real threat. It just won’t be nuclear.
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