Look for new dictators!
Americans have based their Middle East involvement on the idea that we could change those countries into western democracies if we would just stick to that goal. The argument is that once they are democracies they will be less likely to provide sanctuary to terrorist. In the end we would see the change that would bring peace and stability to that region. It was George Bush’s Freedom Agenda. While the objective is worthy, the likelihood of it occurring is remote. With the exception of Turkey there are no Islamic democracies.
It was the United States that supported the idea of free elections in Gaza. The consequence of that election is Hamas, a terrorist group according the United States, that won 75 out of the 118 seats, with Fatah, the alternate party winning 39 seats. No elections have occurred since the Hamas gained power on 2006.
In Egypt we saw the Arab Spring, at it finest hour, drive Hosni Mubarack from power. There were promises of a new democracy with elections by November. What we have seen is a military crack down and no lifting of “emergency powers.” There is no indication of any elections at any time.
Iraq was freed from the dictatorial Saddam Hussein within three weeks of our invasion. Today the country is split among its three primary religious/ethnic groups and the government barely functions.
In Tunisia there is an election scheduled for October 23 but there is a concern that the turnout will be small. This is the country most likely to have a successful democracy.
Libya has the financial resources to become a democracy but it is a tribal nation. The tribes wanted Moammar Gadhafi out of power. There is little to indicate that a democracy can become a reality.
Turkey is the one nation that can help develop democracies within the Arab world. The United States needs to enlist the participation in an effort to bring good government to the Arabs. Notice I say “good government” not democracy. Arab people do not have any experience with this form of government. There is little in the news to indicate they will adopt a western system.
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