Policeman of the World – Let China Do It

This cogent commentary in Newsweek June 25, 2012 was written by Niall Ferguson. He is their regular conservative contributor. Here is an abridged version of his column.

It’s not America’s job to intervene in Syria.

THE ARAB SPRING  has plunged Syria into a bloody civil war. Now, with allegations flying that the Russians are supplying helicopters to the odious regime of Bashar al Assad in Syria, a familiar debate is underway. Should we intervene?

There can be no morally credible argument against intervention-by someone.

But why should it be the United States that once again attempt to play the part of global cop?

Since the early 1970s, the Middle East has absorbed a disproportionate share of American resources. Particularly since 9/11, it has consumed the time of presidents like no other region of the world. Yet it is far from clear that this state of affairs should continue, for three good reasons.

 First, advances in fracking tech­nology and discoveries of bountiful natural gas reserves mean that North America’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil will diminish rapidly in the next two decades.

Second, a new military intervention makes very little sense at a time when theU.S.defense budget is being slashed.

Finally, what is the point of humanitarian interven­tion in a region where no good deed goes unpunished?

So if not us, then who? Or perhaps that should be: if not us, then Hu? That, after all, is the name of the current Chinese president.

 In terms of geopolitics,China today is the world’s supreme free rider.China’s oil consumption has doubled in the past 10 years, while America’s has actually declined.

Moreover, China’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil is set to increase. The International Energy Authority estimates that by 2015 foreign imports will account for between 60 and 70 percent of its total consumption.

Yet China contributes almost noth­ing to stability in the oil-producing heartland of the Arabian deserts and barely anything to the free movement of goods through the world’s strategic sea lanes.

 Finally, the world is ready for the Chinese to partici­pate more fully in international security. According to another Pew survey of 14 nations around the world, 42 percent of people now think China is the world’s lead­ing economic power, compared with 36 percent who think it’s still the United States.

 Under President Obama, U.S.grand strategy has been at best incoherent, at worst nonexistent. I can think of no better complement to the president’s recent “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region than to invite China to play a greater role in the Middle East-one that is commen­surate with its newfound wealth and growing military capability. NW