Are you enthusiastic about Joe Biden as the Democratic Party nominee for the November election? I am not.
Former Vice President Joe Biden has a serious problem winning in November. He leads President Donald Trump in pretty much every single national poll. Yet the same polls find that Trump’s supporters are much more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate than Biden’s supporters are voting for theirs.
This split is potentially a good sign for Trump because the candidate who has led on enthusiasm (or a closely related question) has won every presidential election since 1988, though there are reasons to think Biden could break this streak.
Importantly for Trump, the leader on enthusiasm has gone on to win in close elections as well as ones with wider margins.
One of those close elections was four years ago. Trump had a consistent edge over Hillary Clinton in enthusiasm. His voters were 4 points more likely to say they were very enthusiastic in voting for him than Clinton’s were for her in the final ABC News/Washington Post poll, even as Clinton led overall. That enthusiasm advantage should have been one of the warning signals to the Clinton campaign.
The Los Angeles Times opinion page May 16 has the headline “Opinion: Joe who? Biden’s the likely nominee, but readers are oddly quiet about him.” One contributor wrote “I have watched Biden the last few months. Does he inspire others through his leadership? The answer obviously is no. So why will he almost certainly be nominated for president by the Democratic Party? He’s not at the top of his game, he’s prone to making verbal mistakes, and he does not have a coherent message. I can’t imagine him leading our country.”
Sadly I have to agree with that writer. Biden has not offered any message. I’m here to oppose Trump is not a message. It appears Trump will lose in November due to his incompetence related to the coronavirus and the state of the economy rather than enthusiasm for Joe Biden.
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I’ve always liked Joe Biden, and I am pretty enthusiastic about him, but, what I think this misses is how “charged up” many people like me are about the prospect of denying Trump a second term of office, and about how critical to the health of the USA doing that is. I think Joe Biden’s “message” is that he’s a sane, good, experienced leader, who knows what he’s doing, and knows how to get good people to help him–completely the opposite of Trump.
The one thing that is never brought up by the press is the near-fatal aneurysms that nearly killed him 1988. An event like that has lasting repercussions that could explain his constant befuddled state. https://www.hoag.org/specialties-services/neurosciences/latest/joe-biden-s-aneurysm-rupture-a-stroke-of-fortune/