The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that La Niña — a phenomenon that occurs when the surface of the Pacific Ocean cools — has officially formed.
Between the two phases there is a neutral phase that’s neither El Niño nor La Niña — what climatologist Bill Patzert calls “La Nada.” That’s where we find ourselves at the moment — and where we expect to stay through the summer. But NOAA predicts that there’s a 50% to 55% chance of our current neutral phase shifting into a La Niña this fall and winter. Hence the watch. But there’s also a 40% to 45% chance, according to NOAA, that we will remain stuck in neutral for the fall and winter. In addition, there’s about a 5% to 10% chance of an El Niño developing.
Rain in Canoga Park has been decent the past two years. 18.47 inches in this past year and 23.23 inches the year before. Since 1997 when I started collecting rain data in my yard the lowest seasonal total was 4.53 inches in the 2001-2002 period.
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