President Joe Biden and Ex-President Donald Trump are the likely candidates in the 2024 election

Trump and Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University, in Nashville, Tennessee, in October 2020. (Jim Bourg / Pool /AFP via Getty)

Polls for the past six months or so have consistently shown that a majority of Americans do not want to see a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. And yet, unless health issues sideline one or the other (or unless a newly unemployed Tucker Carlson decides to take his angry-racist-preppie shtick into politics), the Trump-Biden showdown feels inevitable.

Trump and Biden are likely to be renominated for very different reasons. Obviously, Biden is the incumbent—and has been a remarkably successful president under difficult circumstances. Whatever the grousing from Democratic faithful, parties do not torpedo their own president: The only sitting chief executive who was elected in his own right and then denied renomination for another term was Franklin Pierce, in 1856. (Four others were denied nomination after becoming president upon the death of the incumbent.).

Is this the best we can do?

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