No Real change in the Unemployment Rate

Try Crunching these numbers!

President Obama received some good news last night. The unemployment rate has dropped to 7.8%. As Chris Mathews and others have said repeatedly, no president has been re-elected when the rate was over 8% since FDR. Market Watch has questioned whether the books have been cooked. I prefer to believe the data is accurate. After all, the government could have provided false data over the past year and apparently did not. How could the unemployment rate decline? More people stopped looking for jobs than those obtaining new jobs.

The problem is the focus of the data. The BLS trumpets the unemployment rate rather than the number of unemployed. It’s only after extensive reading did I learn about another piece of data that tells the real story. Table A-15 (Alternative measures of labor underutilization) of the BLS monthly report on Line U-6 provides a more accurate reflection of the true unemployment situation. That line provides “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.”

That number is 14.7% for this past month. At its peak in December 2010 the percentage had reached 16.6%.

The president is silent on his plans and Mitt Romney has said he will create 12 million jobs in four years. There are no details on the plans. No wonder! No one employs more help without demand. Lower taxes are wonderful for the pocket book but will that make a difference in hiring?

I don’t think so!

California Death Penalty

The AP reported today, “A former Charles Manson follower imprisoned for 40 years in a double murder engineered by Manson won a recommendation of parole Thursday in his 27th appearance before a parole board panel.”

The man, Bruce Davis, convicted with Manson and another man in the killings of a musician and a stuntman is one of a group of the Manson family of mad dog killers.

He has been in prison since 1972 and is now 70 years old. Had there been a death penalty in place that year he would have spent his life on California’s “death row.” The chances are he would not have been put to death. The last person was executed in 2006. There are now over 700 people on California’s “death row.”

Proposition 34 in the November ballot “ Repeals death penalty as maximum punishment for persons found guilty of murder and replaces it with life imprisonment without possibility of parole.” That is the wording of the State Attorney General in the official summary.

The summary goes on to say that the current costs associated with those sentenced to death amounts to $100 million a year. It likely to rise to $130 million in the not too distant future.

My question is what are the chances that people like the Manson Family clan can receive recommendations for parole?

There was the madman who killed two teenage girls in San Diego County just a few years ago. He admitted to the crime and to avoid a trial was sentenced to life without possibility of parole. Really?

If Bruce Davis can receive such a recommendation then why not Sirhan Sirhan? Why not the Hillside Stranglers (Cousins Angelo Buono and Kenneth Bianchi enjoyed killing Los Angeles women just for the thrill that they experienced during the process of torture and murder.) ?

It’s not your problem until it’s someone in your family!

Presidential Debate One Goes to Mitt Romney

Even before tonight’s presidential debate was over I knew that Mitt Romney had won. He strongly stated the case that Barack Obama had spent too much time on health care when jobs were the issue facing many Americans.

Romney’s ideas for creating jobs are full of holes. However, he emphasized that he could provide the stimulus to create 12 million jobs in his first four years as president. The president had no response.

The reporters and commentators on CNN agree with my assessment. James Carville was part of the CNN panel and he too agreed that Romney was the winner.

This does not mean that Romney will win the election. It does give the Republicans confidence that their man can win the White House.

Vote Yes on California Proposition 30

Californians are spoiled and selfish. They cry about their high taxes without considering the consequences. Two significant results of the no additional taxes is the condition of our schools and highways. California is rated 47^th in the country in quality of schools and highways are mediocre at best. Consider the general property tax rate in New Jersey. Their rate is .03758 according to that state’s web site. The result is that taxes on a home with an assessed value of $150,000 are $5,637. There is no Proposition 13 control on increasing the appraised value. Thus my home has an increased value of just over 50% in the past 33 years. The actual market value of the home increased by 6 times before the 2008 crash.

You might argue that we have higher sales tax rates but here are the rates in various major cities throughout the country

Birmingham, AL 10.0%

Chicago, IL 9.75%

Seattle, WA 9.5%

Los Angeles 8.75%

San Francisco 8.5%

NYC 8.5%

Las Vegas, NV 8.1%

Philadelphia 8.0%

San Diego 7.75%

Boston 6.25%

A loaf of Bread cost 9 cents in 1938. My parents bought their first home in 1949 for $12,500. Today Zillow values the house at about $375,000. We simply can’t get our heads wrapped around the fact that everything costs more today. That includes the cost of government.

The Father

Should Catholics riot over this silly story? I hope they don’t! Muslims need to learn to take jokes about their religion as silly words.

—

A little boy got on the bus, sat next to a man reading a book, and noticed he had his collar on backwards.

The little boy asked why he wore his collar backwards.

The man, who was a priest, said, ‘I am a Father.’

The little boy replied, ‘My Daddy doesn’t wear his collar like that.’

The priest looked up from his book and answered, ”I am the Father of many.’

The boy said, ”My Dad has 4 boys, 4 girls and two grandchildren and he doesn’t wear his collar that way!’

The priest, getting impatient, said. ‘I am the Father of hundreds’, and went back to reading his book.

The little boy sat quietly thinking for a while, then leaned over and said, “Maybe you should wear a condom and put your pants on backwards instead of your collar”.

Smoked Salmon (Lox) Emergency

For those of you less informed people, Lox is the Jewish name for smoked salmon. I do not know the origin of the word Lox. I do know that a bagel topped with cream cheese and Lox is a heavenly dish.

On our recent trip to Paris (this past August) we did not go to the Moulin Rouge (way to expensive to watch the can-can). One young lady on the tour, who did go to the show, complained the next day that they served raw smoked salmon for dinner. I informed her that smoked salmon is raw and is very expensive. By the pound smoked salmon costs at least $20.00 USD in Los Angeles.

Now a serious smoked salmon (Lox) emergency has befallen us all. The AP reports “Smoked salmon tainted with salmonella bacteria has sickened hundreds of people in the Netherlands and the United States, sparking a major recall, health authorities said Tuesday.”

What will Lox cost at Jerry’s Famous Deli or Brent’s with this recall? I won’t be surprised if the cost rises to $50.00 USD a pound.

What will happen when Medicare runs out of money?

This news item in the Toronto Star, a large daily newspaper in Toronto, Canada poses a question that could easily be faced in the United States. The questions:

Will America let people die who have little chance of recovery?
Who will pay the bill? Medicare? Medicaide? Private funds?
Dying woman outlives her 90 days of home care so CCAC cuts her services

Published on Saturday September 29, 2012

When Doris Landry was discharged from hospital with a life expectancy of one to two months, she entered the “Home First” program.

Offered by the Central Community Care Access Centre, the program provided a caseworker, personal support workers for eight hours every day, and medical equipment including a special bed, an oxygen machine, a wheelchair and a lift, so Landry could live her final days in the comfort of her niece’s home.

Her niece Charlene Dunlevy took care of her the other 16 hours of the day. “She’s good to me,” Landry says.

The only problem is a bittersweet one: Because Landry survived beyond the program’s 90 day funding period, she now faces reductions in care and uncertainty about the medical equipment.

Landry has cervical spinal stenosis and extensive nerve damage and lives with her niece in Lisle, Ontario, outside of Alliston. Lying in bed, she can manage a small squeeze of her hands, and with effort, a little movement in her arm.

Because of her condition, the bones in Landry’s neck are getting tighter, pinching her nerves. She is losing the power and sensation in her extremities, her voice is becoming weaker. She has difficulty swallowing, chokes often, and has problems breathing. She can’t move her limbs.

“I want to get out of bed,” she says as the air hums on its way through the special mattress. “The doctors tell me, ‘You’ll never get up again.’”

Home First is meant to divert elderly patients from long term care facilities after they are discharged from the hospital following an “acute episode.” The idea is that at-home support can eventually be lessened after the patient improves, or, it will give families 90 days to decide to transition into another form of care, like a long-term care home, which Landry does not want to do. Central CCAC has offered the program since 2009, and 1,713 clients have gone through it. The average 60-day stay (many transition out before 90 days) costs the ministry $10,500.

Born the fourth youngest in a family of seventeen children on Christmas Eve 1927 in New Brunswick, Landry is the last of her siblings. She is lucid, and on her good days, spunky and bright, with nails painted pink by a caring personal service worker. She wants to sit in the gliding rocking chair at the bedside, but she can’t get there. Her condition is terminal — but it is difficult to predict how much longer she will live. Her doctor says there is a prognosis of death in the next few months.

When the 90-day deadline was looming in August, Dunlevy says she was told that the bed would not be removed, but later she was informed all the equipment would have to go, and support would be reduced to three hours a day.

Dunlevy was told she could rent equipment and hire personal support workers. But the family can’t afford either option.

“I’m glad she didn’t die in three months. I hope she has many years to come,” Dunlevy said.

When reached by the Star on Friday, Cathy Szabo, the chief executive officer of Central CCAC, said that after 90 days, clients can stay at home, but the government does not fund the same level of service — legislation and regulations dictate that the CCAC can only provide up to 21 hours of care a week.

She said Landry could remain in the home with reduced care supplemented by hospice and other community organizations. She said equipment from volunteer services has been offered to the family, but if the needs exceed that, Landry could choose a long term care facility. She also noted that if Landry deteriorates, “we will restore service levels.”

Szabo said there was no intent to remove the hospital bed although “we did have conversations with them about how to secure additional equipment going forward in the future.”

She said to remove a hospital bed from a person who came into the program in her final stages of life but has now stabilized would be “cruel and mean.”

“We’re not about that. We aren’t going to take out the bed until there is another plan, if there is another plan for that bed,” she said.

Szabo said her staff had reported that certain equipment wasn’t in use, and that was the equipment that was going to be removed so other patients could use it.

“That is what we offered to take out of the home.”

The family says that isn’t the case — sure, they are not able to put Landry in the wheelchair on some days if she isn’t feeling well, but they try to get her out of her bed as much as they can and need the equipment to do that.

“I would give it to someone if we weren’t using it,” Dunlevy said.

They say the only equipment that has been offered is a medical bed from a local resident. While they are grateful, the mattress does not have air circulation like the CCAC bed and Dunlevy is worried Landry will have bedsores from “head to toe” because of her extremely limited movement.

When asked if the additional equipment was scheduled to be removed, Szabo said, “Not as far as I know.”

“We do need the family to work with us to help us get the right plan and care for the patient, if this lady stays at this same level for two years — and someone else does need the bed, and they just say, ‘No we’re not going to work with you guys we’re not going to make any plans with you,’ that is a very difficult situation. We only have a certain amount of money every year for medical supplies and equipment and that means somebody is on a wait-list for the bed,” Szabo said.

Landry’s palliative care doctor Monique Moreau, sent a request for “ongoing services” to the CCAC in August, and wrote a letter to local health authorities and health minister Deb Matthews on September 13, stressing that staying at home was the best option for Landry and the province’s finances.

Moreau did not get any response — and an email she sent on Monday to the CCAC went unacknowledged. On Friday, after the Star contacted the CCAC about the situation, Moreau received a phone call.

Moreau was told that Landry and her niece misunderstood about the removal of the equipment.

“I don’t think two people can misunderstand that much,” she said.

Moreau was told a case manager was going to visit the family on Monday to review the situation. Moreau believes that supplementary care from volunteers from a hospice will not be enough because those services only offer companionship.

Dunlevy, who works through a temp agency, has stopped working to care for her aunt. Now that service is being reduced further, she cannot return to work.

“I won’t have a choice, I can’t leave her alone. They’re putting us in a predicament,” she said. “I don’t know how we’re going to survive, but we will.”

Moreau, a former board member of the Central LHIN, understands the financial strain on the province.

“It’s not like we’re going to save the health care system a whole lot of money, unless the niece keeps her at home and quits her job and pays for everything,” she said.

Dunlevy says she understands that the CCAC’s hands are “probably tied because they don’t have the money,” but feels that the ministry needs to consider this problem.

Dunlevy and Landry are worried about the uncertainty ahead. For now, Landry can only lie in bed and wait, looking at the small Virgin Mary statue atop the television set.

“Pray for me,” she says. “I’m praying, but she doesn’t do too much.”

Government Lies to the Public Won’t Protect Mistakes

Does our government believe the people are stupid?

U.N. Ambassador, Susan Rice, went to every Sunday morning TV talk show on September 16 to tell viewers and the hosts that the attack on the Benghazi, Libya consulate was not a premeditated act of terrorists but was simply an over zealous group of protesters. I did not believe her contentions.

Machine guns and RPGs were focused directly at that building in Benghazi and the terrorists followed the staff to a secondary facility over a mile away and continued firing their weapons. It just did not sound like an unplanned demonstration.

Finally today CNN reports, “The U.S. intelligence community has revised its assessment of the deadly attack on the American consulate in Libya, saying it now believes it was a deliberate terrorist assault.”

“At every turn Ambassador Rice provided — and said she was providing — the best information and the best assessment that the administration had at the time, based on what was provided to Ambassador Rice and other senior U.S. officials by the U.S. intelligence community.”

I cannot fathom the purpose of Rice’s appearance on all those TV programs. Had she said “we do not know enough to conclude that the attack was conducted be a terrorist group and more information needs to be obtained.” That would have been sufficient. Instead her insistence that the attack was not conducted by a terrorist group makes her look like someone who was trying to mislead the public. The administration’s sloppy handling of this event will bring on a congressional investigation.

My guess is that the administration is trying to cover up an error in judgment somewhere in the government. Someone is being protected!

Why I believe Mitt Romney Will Win the Election

Are Americans stupid or just plain desperate?

I have never voted for a Republican for president. I could not discern the differences between Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey in the first time I voted. I was correct in saying there was little to differentiate the two. Nixon imposed price controls on the economy and that was a decidedly Democratic Party kind of regulation. Richard Nixon supported a national health care plan that the Democrats refused to support.

Now we have Mitt Romney promising to “create 12 million new jobs over the next four years.” He won’t tell us how that will be done. Without the details his words are meaningless. However, Americans are desperate for a recovery so they will buy his promise.

Americans vote for the person who can offer us the promise we want to hear. Proof? “Hope and Change” but no details enabled Barack Obama to win the election four years ago.

Despite the poll trends, I believe Romney will win. It will be mostly about those jobs and the economy. He won’t win CA, NY, IL or MA. He will win a majority in the battleground states.

The result will be that four years from now we will vote for the Democratic challenger.

Where is the American Vision?

The United States provided the motivation to build a trans-continental railroad system. Then we went on to build the Panama Canal. We built the U.S. highway system and then went on to build the interstate super highway system. This is the nation that set the standards for acceptable aircraft safety design that became the standard for the world. While that was going on we landed a man on the moon (more than once!). It was American technology that created the computer age and higher productivity for everyone.

Then something happened. We started fighting among ourselves about how the government should function. We now argue about private matters relating to abortion, inter-marriage, and other personal behaviors that really are not the responsibility of government.

The president’s vision for America is providing a climate where everyone can succeed. His opponent vision is “freedom.” Are those visions for where the nation should go in the decade ahead? They are not my idea of a “vision.”

I want a vision on the order of JFK’s putting a man on the moon.

The infrastructure on the United States is falling apart. We are no longer the leading nation in education. Unemployment is really about 15% of the adult population. 47 million people are on food stamps or other financial aid. Trade unions are fighting over the remains of government and private enterprise as the middle class of America dissolves.

There is no evidence that either Obama or Romney have the skills to bring this nation together. Reince Priebus, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, appearing on This Week on ABC said the GOP Plan Has ‘Specifics Coming Out Of Our Eyeballs’ but the ideas are all about cutting the size of government. The details have never been spelled out. There is no talk about a vision or a plan to re-build the nation. This feels like we are adrift. This feels like a ship without a rudder.

How can these two men hold themselves out as worthwhile leaders? When I vote on November 6, I will stamp the ballot with one hand while holding my nose with the other.