Prepare for a Dirty 2012 Campaign

Chris Matthews, Hardball host on MSNBC, had guests on his show today that were talking about the Obama committee plans to paint Mitt Romney as “weird” at this early date even though he is not the GOP nominee. Apparently the Democratic Party anticipates the possibility of Romney winning the nomination. Obviously they would prefer a Bachmann, Perry, or other hard right candidate. Such a nominee would be an easier target for the Democratic machine. “Weird” may be a reference to his religion but the idea is to leave it to those listening to the Democratic talk to provide their own interpretation. Hardball reference was calling the plans Swiftboat 2.0.

Matthews said nothing to distance himself from the Democratic plans. How dirty will the campaign get? VERY DIRTY!

California Photo Gallery

Notice the new page at the top of this blog. Photos from around the state.

S&P Downgrades U.S. Debt for First Time in History

A Prediction for the 2012 Election

The Tea Party had it’s say in the debt ceiling negotiations. The president pleaded with the Republican controlled House of Representatives to raise the ceiling and do a grand bargain to cut the debt by $4 trillion. Instead we saw a delay to the last day before default and an inconsequential debt reduction law.

Now the country will most likely have to pay higher interest on treasury notes and bonds. Of course the Tea Party will deny responsibility for this situation.

It is a good bet the president knew that this would be the outcome if there was no $4 trillion agreement. Being the mild-mannered man that he is, Barack Obama did not spell out the consequences. As a leader he too has failed.

There is no indication that the next president, a Republican, will manage this nation any better than Obama. We will hear broad generalities that will be as meaningless as Obama’s “Change you can believe in.” The nation will be fed up with Obama and will elect the GOP nominee with fingers crossed and lots of prayer.

Ugly Truths Beneath Jobs Report

Beneath Jobs Report Surface Lies Some Ugly Truths

Published: Friday, 5 Aug 2011

By: Jeff Cox

CNBC.com Staff Writer

Before getting too excited about the modest uptick in net job creation and a slight downward move in the unemployment rate, it’s probably worth a look under the hood.

As is usually the case, there is far more than meets the eye to the Labor Department’s report that the economy added 117,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 9.1 percent.

Let’s start with the reality that fewer people actually were working in July than in June.

According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics breakdown, there were 139,296,000 people working in July, compared to 139,334,000 the month before, or a drop of 38,000.

But the job creation number was positive and the unemployment rate went down, right? So how does that work?

It’s a product of something the government calls “discouraged workers,” or those who were unemployed but not out looking for work during the reporting period.

This is where the numbers showed a really big spike—up from 982,000 to 1.119 million, a difference of 137,000 or a 14 percent increase. These folks are generally not included in the government’s various job measures.

So the drop in the unemployment rate is fairly illusory—stick all those people back in the workforce and you wipe out the job creation and the drop in unemployment.

For once, some of the government’s other tools of economic voodoo didn’t help the count.

The vaunted birth-death model, a byzantine approximation of business creation and failure, actually subtracted 18,000 from the total job creation after a five-month run where it added a total of 741,000 positions to the count.

And the so-called “real” unemployment rate, which adds in discouraged workers and others not counted as part of the headline unemployment rate, actually pulled back one notch to 16.1 percent.

But there’s plenty of bad news to go around otherwise.

The average duration of unemployment rose for the third straight month and is now at a record 40.4 weeks—about 10 months and now double where it was when President Obama took office in January 2009. The total number unemployed for more than half a year now stands at 6.18 million, 130 percent higher than when the president’s term began.

Among the nuggets of good news—the jobless rate for blacks slipped to 15.9 percent and for Latinos to 11.3 percent, both at four-month lows.

But how good or bad the unemployment picture really may not come into view until next month, because of distortions from seasonal adjustments.

Including teachers and others who experience seasonal unemployment, total joblessness actually rose 1.23 million.

via Beneath Jobs Report Surface Lies Some Ugly Truths – CNBC.

Canada Rising

Whether you fly into Canada or drive into Canada from the United States you will hardly notice the differences. With the exception of Quebec most Canadians speak English. They watch most of the television shows broadcast in the United States, their dress and behavior is similar to Americans.

Some of the most famous Americans are really Canadians. Alex Trebek, host of the television game show “Jeopardy”; Justin Bieber, pop/R&B singer; Ali Velshi, television journalist best known for his work on CNN; Pamela Anderson (actress, animal activist, former pinup); Alexander Graham Bell, He invented the telephone; etc.

Canada has a population of just over 33 million people. That number is less than the total number of people living in California.

The Canadian economy created 28,000 jobs last month (June 2011). Economists had expected an overall increase of 10,000 jobs. By comparison,U.S.employers added just 18,000 workers in June. Our population is over 300 million people.

Canada’s economy expanded at a 3.9% annualized pace in January through March, the fastest clip in a year. Compare that number with the revised U.S. growth of 0.4% in the United States for January to March and 1.3% in the second quarter.

What are the differences between these two nations that enables Canada to grow at a faster pace?

According to Statistics Canada, the equivalent of the United States bureau of Bureau of Economic Analysis, businesses replenished inventories and boosted investment spending and exports rose while consumer and government spending stalled. So they do have some ofAmerica’s problems.

Canada is experiencing a construction boom that is a combination of government infrastructure and private enterprise. Toronto, the largest city in the country has projects in process throughout the metropolitan area. Pricewaterhouse Coopers is forecasting a five year boom thanks to Oilsands, hydro projects and transportation.

The cost of homes inToronto’s central city area is comparable to Los Angeles and New York City. Demand is strong unlike the United States. Down payments required are 20% and there is no deduction on income tax for the interest payments.

The income tax structure is similar to the U.S. but they also have a national value added tax in addition to a provincial sales tax that results in a total tax on all purchases of approximately 12% (varies from province to province).

Canada is not likely to obtain the GDP or the power of the United States. However, the United States ought to function more successfully than Canada simply because of its size. Politics does make a difference.

A Rise in Mexican Poverty

Poverty grew in Mexico to nearly half the population

This summary is based upon a report in the Los Angeles Times dated July 30, 2011.

Mexico’s National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy, an autonomous but federally financed agency has conducted the most comprehensive study of poverty to date for that nation. Following are the results.

The number of Mexicans living in poverty grew to 52 million in 2010, up by more than 3 million people from two years earlier, the report says. That means 46.2% of the population lives in poverty. Within that group, 11.7 million people live in extreme poverty, a figure that held steady over the same period.

“This government like no other has sought to give opportunity to the poor,” President Felipe Calderon said in response to the report. Heriberto Felix Guerra, who as minister of social development is in charge of poverty-reduction programs, also defended the government’s efforts, saying the administration took steps to contain the damage from the global financial meltdown of 2008-09, which started in the United States, Mexico’s most important economic partner.

The council defines poverty as a monthly earning in urban zones of less than 2,114 pesos, or about $180. Extreme poverty is less than 978 pesos, or about $83.

Is it any wonder that Mexicans are willing to risk their lives to enter the United States illegally?

“Uncertainty” and the Soap Opera

Republicans have been making hay with this word. They have been claiming that it’s been uncertainty that has caused business to delay investment in new equipment and hiring of new employees. However, the idea of re-doing another federal debt limit hike debate in six months is not going to cause uncertainty does not seem to have crossed their minds. Or perhaps it has. After all the primary Republican mantra has been “we want lower taxes.”

The current “debate” has been the recent and primary cause of the hesitation that has been the driving force in both business and politics. Politicians fear they won’t be re-elected if they vote the wrong way. The problem is they do not know what their constituents want. Simultaneously investors are selling their stocks and bonds fearing that their investments may be in jeopardy.

It is indecision by our leaders that is most dismaying. This soap opera should end now but it won’t. Soap operas can last a life time. Perhaps Congress should appear on a national network under the name “Days of our Lives.” After all we are all wondering what will happen next. One thing is certain. If we miss a day or two it won’t really matter.

8 signs you’re flirting with financial ruin

I am totally sympathetic with the plight of financial distress. I have been there. The pain is ongoing and follows you day and night. This situation is particularly difficult if you are retired and living on a fixed income.

1. Paying late fees and juggling bills

A serious symptom of financial distress is juggling monthly bills by making payments big enough and frequently enough to keep services flowing, but never paying balances on time and in full.

2. Counting on a future windfall

Basing your plans for financial stability on a future payoff, such as an inheritance, a run-up in the value of your home or a big tax refund

3. Multiple credit card hocus-pocus

If your credit card debt is consistently rising and you’re unable to make more than the minimum payments, your balance will continue to rise.

4. Fighting with your partner over finances

Most couples have occasional fights about debt, but if you regularly fight with your spouse about money, it can be a sign there’s not enough disposable income to finance the family’s spending.

5. Regularly paying overdraft fees

If you’re constantly incurring fees for overdrawing your checking account, you could be on the brink of financial disaster.

6. You have a savings rate of zero

If you’re unable to set aside a small amount of money for savings in your budget, your finances are on unstable footing.

7. Covering expenses with retirement savings

Borrowing or withdrawing retirement funds from your 401(k) is a common thread in many of the cases of financial distress.

8. Treating your home like a piggy bank

Such moves are especially ominous if they’re not due to a serious financial need but to a desire for “wants” like a vacation or a new car.