Is Mexico a Failing State?

This is not news. Mexico is becoming a failed state. Just Google these words “Mexico is a failed state” and you will see at least eight articles on the subject.

Wikipedia says the term failed state is often used by political commentators and journalists to describe a state perceived as having failed at some of the basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government. In order to make this definition more precise, the following attributes, proposed by the Fund for Peace, are often used to characterize a failed state:

loss of physical control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force therein,
erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions,
an inability to provide reasonable public services, and
an inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community.

Common characteristics of a failing state include a central government so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory; non-provision of public services; widespread corruption and criminality; refugees and involuntary movement of populations; and sharp economic decline.

The level of government control required to avoid being considered a failed state varies considerably amongst authorities. Furthermore, the declaration that a state has “failed” is generally controversial and, when made authoritatively, may carry significant geopolitical consequences.

The Associated Press reported a “Gunmen killed a state congressional candidate and his wife and two sons in their home Saturday in the Gulf coast state of Tabasco, in southern Mexico.” Gangs are the suspected killers.

It’s happening all over Mexico. Is Mexico a failed state now? That depends on your definition. The United States government needs to be more concerned about its southern neighbor and the impact on our own nation. Mexico could become a haven for terrorists that could bring significant harm to Americans.

The Great Recession of 2007 to 2010

Despite the stock market’s recent optimism there is nothing to celebrate! No industries are in a growth mode now.

New claims for unemployment benefits declined from 574,000 to 570,000 for the week ending August 29. It most likely is no change because the weekly report is a preliminary number. In the previous week the preliminary number was 570,000 and was adjusted up to 574,000. The September 4 report of 9.7% unemployment rate for August supports this column. Retail sales are down for most national chains.

The very worst layoffs are probably over but the rate is still astonishingly high. When there is no recession the weekly layoffs amount to about 350,000 people. The lay off rate in excess of 600,000 people per week lasted for 14 weeks. So now everyone is celebrating nine weeks of layoffs in the 500,000 to 600,000 range. Even as I write this commentary the AP headlines a story Improving economy not likely to lower jobless rate. This does support my contention that we won’t see job growth any time soon.

The stimulus package has not done its job. Those opposing it were correct. The government posted distribution confirms the argument that too little of the stimulus money would not be put into the economy quickly enough to create any short term benefit.

Recessions are frequently the time for new business ideas. I believe that will be the source of our next boom.

al-Qaida Does Not Need Afghanistan

The Associate Press reported today that these are the five measures that Obama will use to decide if the anticipated request for more troops is an appropriate action.

-The concern about how Afghans, Americans and NATO allies would view a troop increase

-How force size changes might be countered by al-Qaida propaganda and tactics.

-What impact any change would have on neighboring and nuclear-armed Pakistan, where the al-Qaida leadership – including Osama bin Laden – are believed hiding along the rugged, mountainous border.

-The effect on the “health” of U.S. forces, already strained from repeated deployments in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

-How more forces effectively would propel Obama’s goal of denying al-Qaida and its Taliban allies safe havens in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Mr. President the list of consideration ought to include 1)the likelihood of another attack on the United States if U.S. forces are entirely withdrawn from Afghanistan. After all al-Qaida can set up camp in another country. 2)Is Afghanistan crucial to al-Qaidas desire to harm America.

The press ought to be doing more to answer these questions. There is nothing in the press to indicate al-Qaida needs Afghanistan and neither does the United States.

End the War In Afghanistan

Afghanistan is a quandary for the United States. No nation has ever successfully occupied that country. Alexander the Great tried and failed; and so did the French, British, and Russians. All of them committed larger armies than the Americans. Just to review, that is the country that was the training ground for those who attacked the World Trade Center in New York. We thought that Osama bin Laden would be caught in that country but he wasn’t.

The U.S. forces have been in Afghanistan since October 7, 2001. After criticizing G.W. Bush for the Iraqi War surge, Barack Obama has proposed and is carrying out the same strategy in Afghanistan. What’s the use of bloggers and other non-influential writers from questioning the president’s plans? Well now we have a highly respected conservative columnist, George Will, who writes for the Washington Post and other publications calling for American withdrawal. Bloggers and columnists supporting this withdrawal should write column after column until withdrawal is complete.

With no definition of victory in the battle against terrorists there is no way for anyone to know if we are winning the war. Certainly the loss of American lives is not worth the investment. Admiral Mullin, appearing on Meet the Press, gave an assessment that was not encouraging.

Why must a conservative journalist be the person to say the things we all know? It’s our nature to listen to the most serious and conscientious of our fellow citizens. I hope that President Obama ends this loss of life and fortune very soon.

The 21st Century World Economy Has Arrived

The United States was not interested in the rest of the world until WWII. Our nation kept up its protectionist and no alliance philosophy until that war thrust us (were we dragged?) into a position of leadership. Exceptions to that basic idea did occasionally occur. There was the famous bombardment of pirates off the north coast of Africa in the early 1800s. That was an independent action that led to know alliances. WWI is the outstanding example of working together with other countries to defeat a common enemy. At the end of that war the United States did not join the League of Nations. Instead the country reverted to its no alliances philosophy.

The idea of no alliances apparently dates back to Thomas Jefferson. He extended Washington’s ideas in his March 4, 1801 inaugural address: “peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none.”

A Cato Institute article on free trade confirms the philosophy of high tariffs. The article provides a U.S. Department of Commerce graph that shows 30% import duties on durable goods until WWII. Pat Buchanan, the conservative talk show host and former presidential candidate, still contends that the United States would be better off economically if trade barriers were in place. He repeated that position on the McLaughlin Group on Friday August 21, 2009. When was the last time he went shopping? Walmart, Target, Sears, Best Buy, etc. are all part of the global market place.

It’s understandable why Buchanan and others believe that protectionism is the salvation for the United States. We can’t compete with other nations for many goods and services. Our cost of living is just too high.

Listed on President Barack Obama’s top five books to read this summer is Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat. It’s a book that tells us something we already know but in horrifying detail. This book tells us about the interdependence of every nation in the world. The quote “President Obama will probably learn of the operation from CNN” evidences how well we have connected everyone. Even Mayanmar’s (Burma’s) secretive government has been unable to keep events in that country a secret from the world. Neither 10th century Muslims nor Asian dictators can stop the interconnected world. Visit Toronto, Canada and it’s like visiting the United Nations. You will realize the world cannot be turned back.

The answer to our dilemma is innovation and invention. This nation gave birth to assembly line manufacturing (Henry Ford’s factories), the telephone, the computer world, and the internet. It was Thomas Edison who invented the light bulb and the first recording devices. The largest and most successful aircraft manufacturing companies were built in the United States. It’s that creativity that will revitalize this nation.

What will it be? I don’t know. It could be new car batteries or new ways to generate electricity or something else.

The new world has arrived. Get excited!

Will Israel Attack Iran?

The answer to the question is, only the Israelis know for sure. According to Micah Zenko in today’s Los Angeles Times the likelihood is high. Mr. Zenko says Iran has until late September to provide the desired response to an international proposal for stopping nuclear enrichment. Given Israel’s history of a first strike doctrine this action is definitely a real possibility.

A columnist in the Pakistani Spectator has provided some important information that would support the thought that Israel is physically positioning itself for such an attack. The unidentified “Guest Blogger” contends that “In a latest move Israel has moved two of its Saar Missile Class warships through the Suez Canal. Ten days back Israel also sailed its Dolphin class submarine, capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, to an unidentified location.”

Of course, if this is an accurate report, Iranian intelligence knows about the positioning of Israeli ships. Can we rely on Michael Oren, the new Israeli ambassador to the United States, when he said on Fareed Zakaris’s GPS that Israel would only use nuclear weapons in response to another nation’s first use? Frankly I doubt it.

Although there appears to be more peaceful times in Israel, its last two wars have ended in a draw. Perhaps that was enough for Israel’s enemies.

Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons now. I am guessing that Israel will strike Iran if it believes there is a real threat. It just won’t be nuclear.

There is No New Direction for Our Economy

I am mystified about the economic direction of our country. Despite the optimism in the stock market there really is no new direction for the nation’s economy. It may be accurately reported that net income of many companies has increased but it was mostly the result of reduced labor costs and reductions in inventory. Cash for Clunkers was a great idea for clearing dealer lots but who will buy a car now that the program has ended?

With credit card interest rates up and with far fewer offers from the banks for new credit card accounts there has been an obvious reduction in card usage. Most of us are burdened with too much credit card debt to buy very many new things. After all we consumers had a total outstanding bill of almost $1 trillion. The reduced card use is a good thing for the individual but bad for an economy that relies on consumer spending.

The $768 billon stimulus bill was a great idea to jump start the economy. The problem is that only $89 billion has actually been paid out. That is about 12% of the allocated money. This is particularly maddening to me when I see streets that need resurfacing all over my city. Other projects are talked about but there has been no action.

We are left with actions by private enterprise to invigorate the economy. The wealthy are too happy to care and the rest of us really are praying.

We need more than prayer and hope. The world is changing faster than ever before. Other nations have economies that are far better managed than ours. Even our next door neighbor, Canada, is more successfully managed than the United States. China and India are both reported to having seen a turn around in their economies. Unless there is an inspired government that isn’t involved in political infighting or industries that quickly step up to the table, and that means within the next 12 months, the United States will follow Japan into a longer downward financial spiral.

Isn’t Health Care Rationed Now?

A sixty year old gentleman, who works for a pest control company, comes to my home every other month to spray around the outside of the house to reduce the invasions of bugs. He was hospitalized from June 30 to July 4. He had a blood infection in one leg. The doctor wanted him to stay in the hospital another week. He wanted to go home and enjoy some vacation time. The doctor relented and he went home. He went back to work a week later and although the leg is sore he is recovering.

He was hospitalized for four nights. His medical insurance is denying him coverage for two nights. The insurance company contends that two nights care was sufficient time for his recovery.

Is this a case of rationing health care?