The Impact of Newspaper Endorsements

As you watch news reports about the presidential race you hear about those newspaper endorsements. This is normal during the last few weeks before an election. The two newspapers in my area have already offered their opinions on the various measures on our ballots.

Here in Los Angeles the ballot is seven pages long and includes various state county, school, and city measures. Those measures are either called referendums or initiatives in California.

The purpose is usually for raising bond money or raising taxes. Sometimes there are proposals to modify the law. The famous Proposition 13 in California limited the amount property taxes could be increased annually. The most conspicuous question on the year’s ballot is one proposing to make marriage between two people of the same sex illegal.

A PBS item dated October 26, 2004 disproves the value of those newspaper position pieces. 128 newspapers’ editorial pages had endorsed Senator Kerry, while 105 newspapers supported President Bush for a second term. So while the Washington Post, Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times have endorsed Barack Obama there is no reason to get excited. I do not know anyone who is voting for an issue or candidate based on an endorsement. Even if Colin Powell endorses Barack Obama the impact will be minimal. Still it will be fun to learn about his endorsement and his reasoning.

ETHICS

The issue of ethics was brought to my attention by a community college instructor of mine. She teaches both finance and ethics classes. When that teacher brought in two speakers to her personal finance class hawking their services I found myself questioning her ethics. After all, the students are expecting learning experience not a sales experience. When one guest speaker came to explain long term health care insurance and bad mouthed Consumers Reports, I suspected the worst. CR warned about the pitch and offered specifics that matched the speakers pitch. Wow! I wonder, could the class instructor be receiving a kick back for every student signing up? I do not know but she is a client of both of her guest speakers. The instructor apparently has ignored the ethical implications even if there is nothing inappropriate in their relationships.

My dentist performed root canal and installed a new bridge in my mouth. The entire area is still soar and the bridge is uncomfortable. The bill is $3,500. I pointed out to him that when my mechanic makes a mistake he refunds my money. The dentist still wants to be paid.

This issue is even more significant in the current race for president. Smears and innuendo appear to be a stock in trade part of the McCain campaign. Are some of the concerns raised by McCain legitimate? Yes. The problem is that the primary focus of John McCain has been smears. The lack of focus on real issues is conspicuously beyond belief. Perhaps his slogan should be “Service, Country First, Ethics Last.”

The Bill Ayers thing is totally ridiculous. The Annenberg Foundation sponsored a group that included both Ayers and Obama. This is hardly a terrorist plot and is confirmed by factcheck.org.

Not yet mentioned by the McCain campaign but many of his surrogates is the Reverend Wright issue. It is a legitimate question when people ask how Obama could not have known about Wright’s views of America. There is sufficient evidence that Obama did know about those views.

John McCain opposed the Bush tax cuts when they were first proposed. More recently he has given wholehearted support for those cuts and wants them made permanent. Was that a flip flop or an ethics issue?

Finally there is the question of Sarah Palin. John McCain supports her without question but many highly respected conservatives doubt her ability to hold the position of president. Isn’t this a breach of ethics for McCain to offer her as his stand in?

Long Term Care Insurance

If you are very rich you can afford to hire a care giver or live in an assisted living facility or nursing home. If you are not rich your family will have to struggle with the reality of giving you care.

I enrolled in a Personal Finance class at my local community college (Pierce College, Woodland Hills, CA). The description said, “learn the basics of investment strategies, The new Medicare RX plan, Long Term Care Insurance, financial planning, the law, as well as techniques to minimize taxes, and how to create an income in retirement.” It turned out that two of the six classes I attended were sales pitches. The other four provided very little in the way of new information or ideas.

One session was presented by a man who claimed to be a financial adviser. His real purpose was to enroll class members with his firm that manages your savings. The cost is just 1% of the value of your investments per year. He would not consider anyone with less than $250K as a client. So that is a mere $2,500 per year for the least eligible client.

Another session, my last, was a series of scare tactics to enroll with the presenter for long term care insurance. This presentation was made by a woman who wore dark sun glasses during the entire presentation. I felt like I was at one of those presentations at a local restaurant that includes a free lunch. She cautioned the class to disregard Consumers Reports evaluations of this insurance. After questioning her about the soundness of the insurance companies offering these policies, and being asked to be quiet by the class instructor, I left the room. Reaching my house I, of course, immediately went to the Consumers Reports website.

Here is what I found on the CR website.

Sales pitches and their catches

To sell you on long-term-care insurance, agents may play fast and loose with the facts. These pitches are drawn from an insurance-industry publication and interviews with agents.

The pitch: You need to buy long-term-care insurance when you are young. More than 40 percent of people who need long-term care are under age 65.

The catch: Only 159,000 of the 238 million people under age 65, or less than 1 percent, receive nursing-home care.

The pitch: There is nearly a 50 percent chance that a person will require 24-hour care in a skilled-nursing facility.

The catch: One percent of those ages 65 to 74 live in a nursing home, 4 percent of 75- to 84-year-olds, and 19 percent of those age 85 and older.

The pitch: If you are over age 65, you don’t need inflation protection.

The catch: According to the most recently published figures, the average age of admission to a nursing home is 83, and costs are expected to rise more than 5 percent a year. At age 65, you face 18 more years of inflation.

The pitch: You’ll get into a better nursing home if you have insurance.

The catch: While some nursing homes may prefer to take residents who do not have to rely on Medicaid, there is no guarantee that those homes provide better care. To check on any nursing facility you are considering, visit the ConsumersUnionCenter for Consumer Health Choices Web site at www.consumersunion.org/health/nursing-rpt603.htm.

The Third and Final Debate

It was John McCain’s best performance. He was sharp. He was emotional. He was convincing. Barack Obama’s performance was not great but was good enough. I would call this debate a tie. Neither won this event.

John McCain had to convince sufficient numbers of voters to change their decision to vote for him rather than Barack Obama. I do not think he accomplished his objective. I am quite sure that his campaign staff will say he has turned the tide. The polls will tell the story in the next few days.

Personally there are at least three reasons that I could not vote for John McCain.

He is very old and there is a distinct possibility that Sarah Palin will become president.
He opposes Roe versus Wade. The over turning of that ruling would set this country back 35 years. Before that ruling women were going to back alley doctors to obtain an abortion. That is barbaric.
The health care plan proposed by John McCain will result in higher costs to Americans. This nation needs real care at affordable costs for everyone.

John McCain is a fighter as he proved in the Republican nominee selection process. He will campaign vigorously into the evening of November 3.

Concerned with Race, Religion, and Ethnicity

Is there a Bradley Effect in recent polls showing Barack Obama’s lead of as much as 11%? I do not know. For those not familiar with the theory it is that participants in polls will lie about their willingness to vote a Black man. Tom Bradley, was the Black mayor of Los Angeles. He ran for governor of California in 1982. Although many polls showed him significantly leading, he lost the election.

I fear that the theory has merit. The reason is that there have been too many other Black candidates who narrowly won or lost after polling data showed a significant lead. Douglas Wilder, former Virginia governor, is an outstanding example of someone who had polls showing a 9% lead but won by less than 1%. Others include Harold Washington’s four-point victory in the 1983 Chicago mayoral race despite a double-digit lead in polls, and David Dinkins’ two-point victory over Rudy Giuliani in 1989 to be New York‘s mayor despite a 14-point margin in late polls.

I personally believe that voting polls are trend indicators at best. It’s not just people not telling the truth but many people not wanting to participate in any poll. I question the validity of polling when so many people consider poll taker questions an invasion of privacy.

Sadly, too many Americans are more concerned with race, religion, and ethnicity than their own well being. This example from a John McCain rally is a most telling indicator. It is so bad in this country that people were opposed to Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee because his religion is Mormon. I always thought Mormon is a religious sect just like Lutherans, Baptists, or Catholics. What do we Jews know?

God gave man the right to choose. He chose to eat the apple. I conclude that Americans have the right to choose John McCain. Well, the selection of president may be a flawed process but the U.S.A. is still the best place in the world. I many not be happy but I will accept the results. Will those bigots accept the results if Barack Obama is elected?

This Country Needs a Manufacturing Base

There is not a country in the world that has thrived without an agricultural, mining or manufacturing base. Today those nations include China, Taiwan, Japan, Germany, Russia, and Iran, Brazil, and Canada. The United States is part of that group too but this nation has seen a significant decline in its manufacturing. Charlie Gibson on ABC News was reporting from Racine, Wisconsin when he pointed out that the town has always been a manufacturing town. The problem is that the United States has been shedding manufacturing jobs for many years.

If you look at the GDP over the years going back to 1967 you find that manufacturing as a percentage of the total has continuously declined. In that year manufacturing was 25.2% of GDP. By 1987 manufacturing had declined to 17.1 %. That was not the end of the decline as it was down to less than 12% in 2005.

When I was in college in the early 1960s there were 30 million people in labor unions. Today the number has declined to 15 million. The reason is the shedding of manufacturing jobs.

Automobile manufacturing has been one of the industries that personifies American manufacturing know how. The problem is that the Japanese, the Germans, and others have taken the lead from the American companies. It’s no wonder. The auto manufacturers in those countries have delivered cars with better quality and higher gasoline efficiency. General Motors share of the U.S. market in 1954 was 54% and imports were play things for the rich. The VW would not arrive in significant numbers until 1955. We all know what happened next. Japan developed superior quality control and that made the names Honda and Toyota synonymous with the word quality. I remember asking an employee of mine in 1983, after he had completed his assignment, “Is that Toyota quality?”

Unless the United States returns to its manufacturing roots and does it better than the rest our nation is in for a very difficult 21^st century.