This analysis by The Jerusalem Post is well written and should be taken seriously.

—

By BARRY RUBIN 
02/02/2011 04:48
There’s a lot of confusion about the Egyptian crisis, yet it is vital that people understand what is at stake.

The first issue is whether only the ruler or the entire regime is going to fall. The mere resignation of President Hosni Mubarak from office would not be a huge problem. Vice President Omar Suleiman or someone else will take over, the regime will make adjustments to build support (and probably repress the Muslim Brotherhood) and Egypt’s policy – certainly its foreign policy – remains relatively unchanged.

But if the entire regime falls, this would lead to a period of anarchy – bad – or a new regime – worse.

There are some huge problems:
• The moderates’ weakness. There are no well-organized moderate groups with a big base of support. Can any such politicians compete with the highly organized, disciplined Muslim Brotherhood which knows precisely what it wants? Indeed, the muchtouted Mohamed ElBardai is a weak and ineffectual man with no political experience whatsoever. Many of the activists who have backed his candidacy are themselves Islamists.

Indeed, many of the non-Islamist “moderates” are not so moderate. In sharp contrast to reformers in other Arab countries, many of the Egyptian “democrats” are themselves quite radical, especially in terms of anti-American and anti-Israel thinking.

• The public’s radicalism. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, the Egyptian public is extremely radical even in comparison to Jordan’s or Lebanon’s. When asked whether they preferred “Islamists” or “modernizers,” the score was 59 percent to 27% in favor of the Islamists. In addition, 20% said they liked al-Qaida; 30%, Hizbullah; 49%, Hamas. And this was at a time that their government daily propagandized against these groups.

How about religious views? Egyptian Muslims said the following: 82% want adulterers punished with stoning; 77% want robbers to be whipped and have their hands amputated; 84% favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.

So how is such a radical public going to vote and what policies would they support? The Muslim Brotherhood is likely to be very popular while one would think secular moderates in suits and ties would not be able to compete in elections.

• The economy’s fragility. In a country like Saudi Arabia, a government can buy off opposition. Not so in Egypt, a place where there are few resources (some oil, Suez Canal) and too many people. So how is a government going to make the public happy? It won’t be able to offer greatly improved living standards, more jobs, and better housing. Instead, demagoguery is likely – as it has so often done before in the Arab world – to be the means of gaining votes and keeping the masses out of the streets.

This means the Islamization to some degree of social life, and waves of hatred against Israel and America, the Middle East equivalent of bread (subsidies for food will be increased, but how to pay for them?) and circuses. Moderate governments thrive usually when they can offer benefits. This is very unlikely in Egypt.

• The Islamists’ strength and extremism. If someone tells you that the Muslim Brotherhood is mild and moderate, don’t believe it. In its speeches and publications, it pours forth vitriol and hatred. Making the Shari’a the sole source of legislation for Egypt is one of its most basic demands. The rights of Christians and women (at least those who don’t want to live within radical Islamist rules) are going to decline in a country ruled by the Brotherhood, even as part of the coalition.

As for foreign policy, is the alliance with the United States and the peace treaty with Israel going to survive under such a regime? Maybe but why should that happen? And of course, the regime will support revolutionary Islamists elsewhere. Even ElBardei wants an alliance with Hamas. Such a regime will not be friendly toward the Palestinian Authority or oppose Iranian expansionism (even though it might well hate Iran as Shi’ites).

And what will the effect be on the rest of the region? Everyone will know – Israel and moderate Arabs alike – that they cannot depend on the United States. Revolutionary Islamists would be emboldened to subvert Morocco and Tunisia, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. With an Islamist-ruled Lebanon (for all practical purposes, if only unofficially), Gaza Strip, Iran and Turkey, and with Syrian participation, what will happen in the Middle East?

The worst kind of disaster is one that isn’t recognized as such.

Again, this has nothing much to do whether Mubarak himself stays or not, and everything to do with whether the Egyptian regime stays or not.

The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal.

This is an interesting article from the Jerusalem Post. Notice that the author’s focus in this article isn’t only that Obama has forsaken Israel as an ally of the U.S., but that he’s forsaken our neighbor and ally for 100+ years, Canada.  Now that’s food for thought!

The divide between the world’s two largest Jewish Communities, the U.S. and Israel, is widening every day.  All because in the overwhelming majority of U.S. Jews are only willing to tolerate the Left’s way of looking at the world.  The Jewish Community of Israel actually has a balance of public opinion, with Left and Right, and even Independent voters in fairly high numbers.  How refreshing!  How normal!

by Isi Leibler
November 18, 2010

Having recently visited the US and Canada, I was left with a feeling of profound disquiet concerning the starkly contrasting attitudes toward Israel displayed by the leaders of these two neighboring countries.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has unquestionably emerged as Israel’s greatest friend in the world, effectively assuming the role previously occupied by former Australian prime minister John Howard.

Harper’s principled approach to Israel was demonstrated in an extraordinary address he gave in Ottawa to an interparliamentary conference for combating anti-Semitism. Courageously dismissing the traditional political correctness expressed by many liberals, who feel obliged to distance themselves from the Jewish state, Harper made it clear that under his leadership Canada would not “pretend” to be impartial on Israel even if that meant facing negative repercussions at the UN and other international organizations.

He said that the persecution of Jews had become a global phenomenon in which anti-Semitic ideologies targeted the Jewish people in their “homeland” and perversely exploited the “language of human rights to do so.” He stressed that “while Israel is the only country in the world under attack, is consistently and conspicuously singled out for condemnation, I believe we are morally obligated to take a stand.

“I know this because I have the bruises to show for it, that whether it is at the UN or any other international forum, the correct thing to do is simply to just go along with this anti-Israeli rhetoric, to pretend it is just about being evenhanded, and to excuse oneself with the label of ‘honest broker’… There are after all, a lot more votes in being anti- Israel than taking a stand.

“But as long as I am prime minister, whether it is at the UN or anywhere else, Canada will take that stand, whatever the cost. Not just because it is the right thing to do but because history shows us that the ideology of the anti-Israeli mob tells us all too well, that those who threaten the existence of the Jewish people are a threat to us all.”

Canada was in fact “punished” for its support of Israel when it was ignominiously defeated by Portugal, an almost bankrupt country, in its attempt to obtain a seat at the UN Security Council. All 57 seats of the Organization of the Islamic Conference opposed the Canadian nomination.

For some, Canada’s defeat under such circumstances will be viewed as a badge of honor. But what made Canada’s defeat even more outrageous was the role of the US. According to Richard Grenfell, a former press officer with the US mission to the UN, “US State Department insiders say that US Ambassador Susan Rice not only didn’t campaign for Canada’s election but instructed American diplomats to not get involved in the weekend leading up to the heated contest.”

David Frum, a speechwriter to former president George W. Bush, also noted that “the US government has kept awfully quiet about the suggestion that it went missing during the Security Council vote.”

The US betrayal of its neighbor and long-standing ally is a chilling indication of the depths to which the Obama administration has stooped in its efforts to “engage” and appease Islamic and Third World rogue states.

Having joined the appallingly misnamed UN Human Rights Council dominated by dictatorships and Islamic nations, the US is now beginning to reap the harvest from this flawed policy. This was exemplified this month during the council’s first “universal periodic review of human rights.” In a session where US representative Esther Brimmer told the group that “it is an honor to be in the chamber,” Cuba described the US blockade of Cuba as a “crime of genocide”; Iran, a country which stones women for adultery, urged the US “to combat violence against women”; and Libya complained about US “racism, racial discrimination and intolerance.”

In the midst of this and despite repeated assurances concerning the “unbreakable bond of friendship” between the US and Israel, Obama is continuing to flex his muscles by beating up on Israel. Yet, his Middle East policies, which run counter to American public opinion, have failed disastrously, with US approval levels in the Muslim world even plummeting below 2008 levels.

Obama’s most recent assault on Israel was conveyed from his childhood home, Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, the largest Islamic country in the world, which he praised as a model of tolerance worthy of global emulation.

While compared to Arab standards, Islamic Indonesia may be relatively tolerant, the president overlooked the recent opinion polls, in which 25 percent of the population expressed confidence in the leadership of Osama bin Laden, and that between 2004 and 2007, 110 Christian churches were closed due to pressure from local governments. In January of this year, 1,000 Muslims burned down two churches in Sumatra.

Needless to say, Indonesia does not recognize Israel, bans Israeli aircraft from flying over Indonesian territory and denies entry visas to Israeli citizens. It is especially galling that from such a country, Obama again saw fit to distance the US from Israel and aggressively condemn the Jewish state for building homes in the exclusively Jewish suburbs of its capital Jerusalem.

We must ask ourselves what endgame the US administration is pursuing. Obama knows that former prime ministers Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert offered the Palestinians everything and that they still refused to reach an accommodation because their ultimate objective remains the delegitimization of Jewish sovereignty. What they now seek is a non-demilitarized state based on the 1949 armistice lines to provide them or other Arab states with a launching pad to attack and destabilize Israel. Not surprisingly, the Europeans are more than happy to accept such a state of affairs. It would thus be catastrophic for the Obama administration to stand aside and enable this process to eventuate.

Yet, all indicators suggest that the Obama administration is determined to capitalize on Israel’s international vulnerability. Despite the absence of any response from the Palestinians or the Arab world to Israel’s 10-month settlement freeze, the US has literally bludgeoned Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to breach his undertaking to the people of Israel and renew a settlement freeze, including areas that will undoubtedly remain in Israel.

Although on the surface the US appears to be offering incentives to Israel to persuade it to accede to its requests, anyone reading between the lines recognizes that nothing new is being offered. The exercise of the veto in the face of UN resolutions demonizing Israel and offering to maintain Israel’s security needs have been fundamental tenets of the relationship between Israel and the US. In reality, Obama issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu by threatening to abandon Israel unless it capitulates to his demands.

Many of us today yearn for an American president who would be more considerate of our needs than the present incumbent. It would perhaps be an impossible dream to have someone of the caliber of Stephen Harper leading the US, but alas, today, we are becoming increasingly reconciled to the reality that the US president is no friend of Israel and is paving the way for an imposed settlement with potentially disastrous long-term repercussions on the security of our nation.

ileibler@netvision.net.il

This column was originally published in the Jerusalem Post 

Edited from an article entitled They Hate Each Other Badly! by Steve Shamrak:
If they treat their Muslim Brothers this way, what attitude to ward Christians, Jews and other infidels would you expect from expanding militant Islam? After Israel, you are next!
July 1, 2010 – At least 35 people have been killed and at least 175 people injured by suicide bombers in a Sufi Shrine in Lahore, Pakistan.  Both Sunni and Shiite Muslims worship at the shrine, which holds the remains of Abul Hassan Ali Hajvery, a Persian Sufi.
July 8, 2010 – A string of attacks against Shiite pilgrims in the past three days killed 70 people in Baghdad (Shiite Muslims, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, have been doing and will do again the same to Sunni andother Muslim minorities!)
July 9, 2010 – At least 15 people were killed on Thursday by bombs targeting the hundreds of thousands of pilgrims who defied violence to take part in the final day of a Shia religious holiday in Baghdad.
July 9, 2010 – A suicide bomber on a motorcycle struck outside a government office on Friday in a tribal region where Pakistan’s army has fought the Taliban, killing at least 48 people and wounding around 80.
 
You have your Chance NOW – Don’t Blame Israel Later! In an in an official letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gabriela Shalev requested the international: “Israel calls upon the international community to exert its influence on the
government of Libya to demonstrate responsibility and prevent the ship from departing to the Gaza Strip.” “Israel reserves the right under international law to prevent this ship from violating the existing naval blockade on the Gaza Strip,” Shalev told Ban Ki Moon.

From an article entitled Food for Thought by Steven Shamrak
Almost 2 million Haitians are still homeless! But the UN and the ‘humanistic’ international press are only concerned and preoccupied with terror infested, artificially invented so-called Palestinians!

They Hate Everything – Even World Cup – Terrorists bomb crowds watching World Cup match, murdering 64. Police suspect an Al-Qaeda-linked Somali group.
 

Even Arabs cannot live with a Nuclear Iran – The United Arab Emirates ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al-Otaiba, said on Tuesday that the benefits of bombing Iran’s nuclear sites eclipse the short-term costs.

Islamic Terror Closer than You Think – Mexican authorities succeeded in preventing Hizbullah from opening a terrorist base in South America and the United States. Hizbullah planned to draft Shi’ite Muslims living in Mexico and provide them with training in terror tactics they could use
against Western and Israeli targets.
 
Quote of the Week: “Israel is our first line of defense in a turbulent
region that is constantly at risk of descending into chaos; a region
vital to our energy security owing to our over-dependence on Middle Eastern oil; a region that forms the front line in the fight against extremism. If Israel goes down, we all go down. To defend Israel’s right to exist in peace, within secure borders, requires a degree of moral and strategic clarity that too often seems to have disappeared in Europe. The United States shows worrying signs of heading in the same direction.” – former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Mara Azna – Why didn’t he shock anti-Semitic Europe by this clear admission of truth when he was still the Prime Minister of Spain?

Attempt to Remove UNIFIL from Lebanon A southern Lebanon village backed by Hizbullah overpowered United Nations troops on Saturday, seizing weapons and wounding one U.N. soldier. Increasing tension in southern Lebanon, where UNIFIL officers have said they cannot carry out a mandate to keep Hizbullah from being armed, despite UN Resolution 1701 that ended the second Lebanon War.
 
Why not Kurdistan? The Kurds have been have been fighting a 26-year
battle to create their own autonomous state in the south-eastern
portion of Turkey. Turkish Kurdistan – or Northern Kurdistan –
comprises nearly a third of the area of Turkey , including some 17
provinces. As many as 40,000 people have died in the conflict. Why no
international support for a real people of more than 25 million, The
Kurds! No condemnation of Turkey for committing genocide of Kurds and Armenians?

Does Turkey Need UN Assistance? Ben-Dror Yemini of the Maariv newspaper
has pointing out that humanitarian conditions in Turkey are actually
worse than those in Gaza, the country (as do most of the Muslim inept
countries) needs help: “Infant mortality in Gaza is 17.7 per thousand;
in Turkey it is 24.8. Life expectancy in Gaza is 73.7, whereas in
Turkey it is 72.2.”

They Hate Israel but Love Jewish Medical Care. Hamas sends up to 100
patients a month to Ichilov hospital in Tel Aviv alone. The hospital
treats patients from hostile Arab countries as well.
From our ‘Peace Partner’: PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas told Arab leaders
that the PA is ready to wage war on Israel if the rest of the Arab
world does: “If you want war, and if all of you will fight Israel, we
are in favour. But the Palestinians will not fight alone because they
don’t have the ability to do it.” Where is the pressure, rebuke, etc
from Obama?

On a positive note – our children: Israeli twelfth-grader from
Beersheba, Eli Goudinevsky, was notified that he won the gold medal of
an international competition called The First Step to a Nobel Prize in
Physics. Evelyn Jenis from Beersheba, Daniel Achdut from Netanya and
Dorin Yerhi from Arad won a silver medal.
 
Much of this information came from the Australian website
http://www.FreeWorldExpress.com