Economy is Job One!

May 4, 2012 Addendum.  The April jobs report confirmed my worst fears.  The U.S. economy added just 115,000 jobs and yet the unemployment rate is down another tenth of a percent to 8.1%.  In other words more people have given up the search.  This is another great day for Mitt  Romney.  Everything I wrote on April 28 remains valid.  The difference  is it has just been reinforced.    

Is the recession over? Not if you are unemployed. Over 12 million Americans are in that status. Most of those people have families that have been impacted. The impact is more likely on three to four times that number. Worse is that the number is not the real number because many more people are no longer counted as unemployed. Most economists add about 50% to the official numbers to reach that real number.

The Obama administration failed to address the primary issue facing the nation. That is the condition of our economy.

Where is the plan to change our course of outsourced jobs? It does not exist.

The latest pieces of economic data support the feeling that the economy is struggling to recover from the Great Recession. New claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 351,000 in the week ending February 11 of this year but have been increasing every week since then with one exception. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2012 grew 2.2% versus a growth of 3% in the last quarter of 2011. The president can’t be held responsible for everything in our economy but there is little he has done or proposed to improve the situation.

 The problem is that Mitt Romney has not enunciated any actions he would take that would change our desperate employment situation. The number of unemployed reached over 14 million people and has now dropped to under 13 million. However the number of long term unemployed has not been significantly reduced and still remains over 5 million people. Obama’s policies did save the country’s auto manufacturers but too many products and services are now provided in other countries.

Americans are the employer of the president. We have the right to expect results. Barack Obama’s four year contract is almost up. Unfortunately the alternate candidate for the job has not told us what he would do to change our economic situation.

The Stockholders Strike Back!

At Citigroup’s annual meeting, owners of the stock voted 55 to 45 against a $50 million executive pay package, including $15 million for CEO Vikram Pandit.

This is all thanks to the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul law.

Buried in its 2,300 pages is a requirement for public companies to hold “say on pay” votes for executive compensation.

Now, the vote is non-binding, but the chairman of Citigroup Dick Parsons said he took it seriously, and promised the board would consider it carefully.

Shareholders have every right to be upset with Vikram.

Over the last decade, Citigroup has had the worst stock price performance of the big banks, but consistently had some of the highest executive compensation.

 Citi shares up slightly today, but they’re down more than 80% since the financial crisis hit.

They’re down 93% from 2006.

Last year, Pandit got a $1.7 million salary, plus a $5.3 million cash bonus, and he got a $40 million retention package that pays out through 2015.

Getting a bonus should be a piece of cake for these execs, too, since the standard for the payout is an earnings track record half of what it was in 2009 and 2010 when the economy was in the tank.

Whoa! Don’t get too ambitious!

Look, to be fair to Pandit, for 2009 and 2010, he accepted just a buck in salary.

 But to be fair to shareholders, Citi’s quarterly dividend is one penny.

 At the start of this week, Citigroup announced its first-quarter profit had fallen two percent from a year earlier on a paltry one percent rise in revenue.

 The Federal Reserve turned the company down on its request for a share buyback or dividend after Citi flunked the central bank’s stress test in March. And don’t forget the bank was one of many bailed out during the financial crisis.

Some people bridle at anyone earning millions of dollars a year, but not me.

If you can grow sales, boost the bottom line, raise the share price, then by all means you’ve earned a fat paycheck.

But what we can’t do is reward mediocrity and failure.

There’s a lot not to like about Dodd-Frank – about 2,299 pages’ worth if you ask me – but shareholder “say on pay”? That’s OK with me.

Last year shareholders voted down just two percent of executive pay plans. Maybe this is the start of a new trend.

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/willis-report/blog/2012/04/18/shareholders-strike-back?link=mktw#ixzz1sXtwnCTx

The Tech impact has Just Begun

When my son had his car stolen, my daughter called to say she learned about it on his Facebook page.

No one doubts that technology has impacted our way of life. Computers, television have morphed into computers, cell phones have become smart phones, tablet computers are replacing lap top computers, and music is now downloaded rather than played on CDs or records (what are records?).

Despite all the new stuff, electronic retail has seen a continuous downward trend over the last few years.  First it was Circuit City that once was the largest chain of electronic stores in the nation and now Best Buy seems to be following with the closing of 50 stores by the end of this year.  Six (revised to 7)in California, six in Illinois, and the balance in Minnesota (revised to 17 states and Puerto Rico).

This really is the impact of technology.  Borders Books is gone and Barnes and Noble is barely hanging on.  All these businesses are impacted by the internet.  It’s the place I made two purchases this month from Amazon.  One was a new camera (tech product) and the other was sugar bowl (that is a blow to all retail).  Banking? On line.

What is the message?  Retail will never be the same.

What about jobs?  Many of us will be working from home.

Betty White may be correct when she said, “Facebook is a big waste of time.”  Just don’t tell the millions of people who use it as a primary means of communication.

Things are Getting Better?

The unemployment rate decreased .1% last month. That sounds good but the cause was more people giving up on searching for a job.  There weren’t even enough jobs created last month to keep up with increased population. 

Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report included the following statement. “The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over)was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March. These individuals accounted for 42.5 percent of the unemployed. Since April 2010, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 1.4 million.”

There is the problem that neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney has addressed. American industry doesn’t need most of those long term unemployed. The reason is that technology and the export of American jobs has reduced the numbers of people required in the United States.

The president’s job plan does include the following proposals
– A $4,000 tax credit to employers for hiring long-term unemployed workers.
– Prohibiting employers from discriminating against unemployed workers when hiring.
Nice gestures that do not answer the question of who will hire these un-needed people?

I have found nothing in Mitt Romney’s proposals that even suggest any solutions. His focus is on “free market.” My question is, where were the free markets under George W. Bush when the economy was in free fall?

My solution is higher tariffs on all imported products. Neither Obama nor Romney agree with that solution.  They don’t have a solution!

Three Economic Misconceptions That Need to Die

Thought this article very interesting.  Especially with information cited coming from notable sources.  This among so many other issues can only leave us wondering how much misinformation we are fed . . . or simply on the face of it, how much we choose to believe.

Love the quote from Evan Thomas who said. . . “You are entitled to your own opinion, but you’re not entitled to your own facts.”  Hmmmm
Three Economic Misconceptions That Need to Die
By Morgan Housel, Columnist at The Motley Fool, USC graduate in Economics

 

At a conference in Philadelphia last October, a Wharton professor noted that one of the country’s biggest economic problems is a tsunami of misinformation. You can’t have a rational debate when facts are so easily supplanted by overreaching statements, broad generalizations, and misconceptions. And if you can’t have a rational debate, how does anything important get done? As author William Feather once advised, “Beware of the person who can’t be bothered by details.” There seems to be no shortage of those people lately.

Here are three misconceptions that need to be put to rest.

Misconception No. 1: Most of what Americans spend their money on is made in China.

Fact: Just 2.7% of personal consumption expenditures go to Chinese-made goods and services. 88.5% of U.S. consumer spending is on American-made goods and services. I used that statistic in a recent article, and the response from readers was overwhelming: Hogwash. People just didn’t believe it.

 

The figure comes from a Federal Reserve report. You can read it here.

A common rebuttal I got was, “How can it only be 2.7% when almost everything in Walmart (WMT) is made in China?” Because Walmart’s $260 billion in U.S. revenue isn’t exactly reflective of America’s $14.5 trillion economy. Walmart might sell a broad range of knickknacks, many of which are made in China, but the vast majority of what Americans spend their money on is not knickknacks.

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics closely tracks how an average American spends their money in an annual report called the Consumer Expenditure Survey. In 2010, the average American spent 34% of their income on housing, 13% on food, 11% on insurance and pensions, 7% on health care, and 2% on education. Those categories alone make up nearly 70% of total spending, and are comprised almost entirely of American-made goods and services (only 7% of food is imported, according to the USDA).
Even when looking at physical goods alone, Chinese imports still account for just a small fraction of U.S. spending. Just 6.4% of nondurable goods — things like food, clothing and toys — purchased in the U.S. are made in China; 76.2% are made in America. For durable goods — things like cars and furniture — 12% are made in China; 66.6% are made in America.

Another way to grasp the value of Chinese-made goods is to look at imports. The U.S. imported $399 billion worth of goods from China last year, which is 2.7% of our $14.5 trillion economy. Is that a lot? Yes. Is it most of what we spend our money on? Not by a long shot.

 

Part of the misconception is likely driven by the notion that America’s manufacturing base has been in steep decline. The truth, surprising to many, is that real manufacturing output today is near an all-time high. What’s dropped precipitously in recent decades is manufacturing employment. Technology and automation has allowed American manufacturers to build more stuff with far fewer workers than in the past. One good example: In 1950, a U.S. Steel (X) plant in Gary, Ind., produced 6 million tons of steel with 30,000 workers. Today, it produces 7.5 million tons with 5,000 workers. Output has gone up; employment has dropped like a rock.

 

Misconception No. 2:We owe most of our debt to China.

Fact: China owns 7.6% of U.S. government debt outstanding.

As of November, China owned $1.13 trillion of Treasuries. Government debt stood at $14.9 trillion that month. That’s 7.6%.

Who owns the rest? The largest holder of U.S. debt is the federal government itself. Various government trust funds like the Social Security trust fund own about $4.4 trillion worth of Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve owns another $1.6 trillion.

Both are unique owners: Interest paid on debt held by federal trust funds is used to cover a portion of federal spending, and the vast majority of interest earned by the Federal Reserve is remitted back to the U.S. Treasury.

The rest of our debt is owned by state and local governments ($700 billion), private domestic investors ($3.1 trillion), and other non-Chinese foreign investors ($3.5 trillion).

Does China own a lot of our debt? Yes, but it’s a qualified yes. Of all Treasury debt held by foreigners, China is indeed the largest owner ($1.13 trillion), followed by Japan $1 trillion) and the U.K. ($429 billion).

Right there, you can see that Japan and the U.K. combined own more U.S. debt than China. Now, how many times have you heard someone say that we borrow an inordinate amount of money from Japan and the U.K.? I never have. But how often do you hear some version of the “China is our banker” line? Too often, I’d say.

Misconception No. 3:We get most of our oil from the Middle East. Fact: Just 9.8% of oil consumed in the U.S. comes from the Middle East.

According the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. consumes 19.2 million barrels of petroleum products per day. Of that amount, a net 49% is produced domestically. The rest is imported.

Where is it imported from? Only a small fraction comes from the Middle East, and that fraction has been declining in recent years. Last year, imports from the Persian Gulf region — which includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — made up 9.8% of total petroleum supplied to the U.S. In 2001, that number was 14.1%.

The U.S. imports more than twice as much petroleum from Canada and Mexico than it does from the Middle East. Add in the share produced domestically, and the majority of petroleum consumed in the U.S. comes from North America.

This isn’t to belittle our energy situation. The nation still relies on imports for about half of its oil. That’s bad. But should the Middle East get the attention it does when we talk about oil reliance? In terms of security and geopolitical stability, perhaps. In terms of volume, probably not.

Crude Oil $123.07 per Barrel

Crude Oil (petroleum); Dated Brent, US$ per barrel As of: Wednesday, February 22, 2012 was $123.07.  Source: US Energy Information Administration

So while the price of crude oil increased by 6% since this time last year, the cost of gasoline increased by 10%.  Why the difference? 

It’s the speculators!

An excess profits tax is appropriate but it won’t be implemented.

Source for gasoline prices is the AAA. 

Say Goodbye to Point & Shoot Cameras

Ladies may carry a camera in their bag or purse but men usually don’t carry those things.  The cell phone is enough baggage for us guys.  Read this report from CES.

“AT&T will also sell Sony’s Xperia ion 4G LTE smartphone as the first smartphone to be sold under the Sony brand in the United   States. Launching in the second quarter, the Xperia ion is based on Gingerbread, and has a 4.6-inch HD display and a 12-megapixel camera.”  The source for this item is http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Latest-News/CES-ATT-Verizon-Sprint-Tout-Android-Smartphones-638610/?kc=CIOMINUTE01112012STR1TOC

Edging Towards War

Iran threatens Strait of Hormuz

US warns Iran against closing Hormuz oil route

Oil price falls as Saudis trump Iran threat

Is it saber rattling or is Iran and the United States moving towards war?  All of this is the consequence of American opposition to nuclear weapons development in Iran.  American politics is also pushing the Obama administration towards more assertive behavior when Republican candidates say that Brack Obama is too timid and apologetic when addressing the Iranian threat.

This is not the only place in the world where the United States has become more militarily assertive.  This past November at an economic Asian conference President Obama announced that “ About  250 U.S. Marines will begin a rotation in northern Australia starting next year, with a full force of 2,500 military personnel staffing up over the next several years.”  This is confrontation with China.  “Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has said that the goal of the new security pact is to signal that the U.S. and Australia will stick together in face of any threats.”  What threats have there been?

America’s military-industrial complex couldn’t be happier.  More war means more weapons.  The factories that hire thousands or people will be humming.  What a great way to boost our economy.