Pareto’s Law

About 30 years ago a mathematician working at my employer told me about Pareto’s Law or principle and how it worked.  I had recalled learning about the theory in college but never had an opportunity to apply its use. 

The theory was devised by Vilfredo Pareto.  In 1906, the Italian economist created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that twenty percent of the people owned eighty percent of the wealth. The Pareto law, in its generalized form, states that 80 % of the objectives – or more generally the effects – are achieved with 20 % of the means – or more.  In other words, not always in the exact 80/20 ratio, this phenomenon seems to occur in many venues.

If you apply the principle to the distribution of wealth in the United States you reach the conclusion that about 20% of the population does own 80% of the wealth.  Although it is not precise, G. William Domhoff’s research about America’s wealth distribution seems to hold up fairly well.

Back at the factory I worked in 30 years ago the sales of our 110 unit product line did break down to 80% of the revenue coming from 20% if the items we offered.  It was almost exactly in that ratio.  I was astonished how closely the numbers were aligned.

I am willing to bet that 80% of the revenue in any super market is derived from 20% of the stocked items plus or minus 3%.

America’s Economic Future

According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek’s Rich Miller there are two economic theories about the future of the United States.

“Mohamed El-Erian and his colleagues at Pacific Investment Management Co. coined the phrase “the new normal” to describe their vision of America’s economic future. The chief executive of the world’s largest bond fund argued that retrenchment by debt-laden consumers and tougher regulation of the financial-services industry would leave the U.S. with tepid annual growth of around 2% for years.”

Miller reports that Joseph Carson, an economist with AllianceBernstein (AB) in New York “posits” his new mix view that the economy will be “powered more by exports and business investment than by the traditional drivers of consumption and housing.”

I want to be the optimist about the future of the United States. It’s hard to be positive when unemployment in California is at 12.5 % and the signs of growth are few and far between.  However, I found one outstanding example of new growth today.  Boeing Company has reported they will speed up production of 747 and 777 models.  The vast majority of the increased business will come from carriers in Latin America and Asia.  This event supports Joseph Carson’s theory.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

We are facing congressional failure.  It’s primarily the fault of the Democrats because they control both houses of Congress.  Instead of focusing on the number one problem in the country they focused on health care.  Of course health care is important but the first issue is money to pay the daily bills.

California has a civilian workforce of over 18 million people.  12.5% are unemployed.  According to state statistics employment in the manufacture of durable goods has declined by 9.6% in the past year.  The decline in non-durable goods employment has been 7.4%. 

Everywhere we look, we see that the goods we buy are manufactured in another country.  Services are no different.  Have you called Citibank, Earthlink, or Dell?  Help lines are provided in India or Philippines.  Pricewaterhouse Coopers has outsourced their data maintenance to India.

The highly respected Institute for Supply Management monthly report has been above 50% starting in August 2009.  A number of 50% or higher is supposed to indicate a growing economy.  While new orders have provided a positive situation for the companies, it has not translated into needed jobs.  ISM, the AMA, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other manufacturing associations need to work together by hiring lobbyists who will fight for laws rewarding American manufacturing and penalizing imported goods.

When you phone or email your congressman and senators you need to yell at them “Jobs. What are you doing to encourage job creation in this country?”

Innovation is the Answer to America’s Economic Plight

The United States is a consumer driven economy that is based upon the purchase of product.  It cannot thrive without employment of most people at salaries that enable that continuing purchasing power. 

Henry Ford knew this when he started building the Model T.  “I will build a motor car for the great multitude,” Ford proclaimed in announcing the birth of the Model T in October 1908. In the 19 years of the Model T’s existence, he sold 15,500,000 of the cars in the United States, almost 1,000,000 more in Canada, and 250,000 in Great Britain, a production total amounting to half the auto output of the world. The expression fordize meant to standardize a product and manufacture it by mass means at a price so low that the common man could afford to buy it.

Whether it was cars, radios, televisions, or telephones it has been American consumerism that has driven our economy.  Michael Mandel, a noted economist who writes for BusinessWeek, says in this article posted on line “All told, household “out-of-pocket” spending drives roughly 40% of U.S. economic activity.”

Unfortunately big corporations do not see the benefit of high employment in the United States in their best interest.  Their primary interest is maximizing net income.  Recent corporate major growth has been outside the United States.  The reason is that this nation is a “mature” or “advanced” economy that already has an abundance of consumer goods.  After all how many more cars or televisions do Americans want or need?  Everyone in our household has a car and there are four televisions in our house.  There really are no specific things we are in the market to buy.  From now on it’s the replacement of old poorly functioning things and warn out clothes that will drive us to the mall or the car dealer.

Compare the United States with India, China, Brazil or other developing nations.  Those growing countries are looking for all the things that Americans take for granted.  Naturally corporations are going there to increase their net income.  In addition, those people will accept pay rates far below those required in our “mature” economy.  Europeans face the same dilemma as the United States.

The solution to the employment problem in the United States is innovation.  Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, guesting on last Sunday’s Meet the Press said exactly the same thing.  The problem is that the U.S. government does not have the right people in place to develop those new products.  People like Jeneanne Rae who is the co-founder and president of Peer Insight, a consulting firm focused on services innovation, points out The Problems with Obama’s Innovation Strategy in her BusinessWeek blog.

The government’s investment in companies like Fisker Automotive is the kind of step that the Chinese government makes in a big way to improve society by employing thousands of people.  Unfortunately too many members of congress are not sufficiently knowledgeable in the business arena to understand the actions needed to change America’s current path.  That results in the bureacracy Jeneanne Rae discusses.  That leaves the rescue to American business.  This situation will require action by the likes of Google to change America’s direction.

The Optimism Meter

Updated Feb. 5, 2010.                                                                                                              Despite the new claims for unemployment rise there is reasons to be optimistic about the nation’s economy.  I am not alone in this view.  The January unemployment rate has actually dropped to 9.7%.  BusinessWeek offers a small item in its Executive Summary titled the Optimism Meter.  That has a thermometer from 0 to 100.  It’s based upon a YouGov pollster measurement.  The “proprietary” measurement offered by Bloomberg is now 59.  That is the highest number reached since Bloomberg purchased the magazine.

Technology will lead the nation out of the recession.  The evidence is growing every week.  Apple and Google appear to be on a path to providing more smart phones at lower cost.  Apple has introduced its i-Pad.  Cisco is the only stock on the DOW that rose today.  There is a new hunt for an Autism drug.  For between around $300 and $500, you can buy a netbook and they are replacing laptop computers.  Quallion LLC, the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium batteries, announced this week that they are building a new facility in the Sylmar area of Los Angeles at a cost of $85 million.  The new facility will hire 200 employees.

Start smiling!

 

A ‘statistical recovery and a human recession’

The economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the second straight quarter of growth.  More details on this AP report. 

Mike Allen’s POLITICO Playbook daily update includes the following item:  

LARRY SUMMERS: ‘a human recession’ — WSJ’s ‘Davos Live’ blog, Neal Lipschutz: ‘Key Obama economic adviser Larry Summers coined a telling way to look at the current American economic state of play. He said the U.S. is experiencing a ‘statistical recovery and a human recession.’ It is a phrase that should resonate through much of the industrial world, where high and long-standing unemployment is increasingly becoming a huge domestic political issue. Speaking on a panel at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Summers said one in five American men aged 25 to 54 are unemployed. He said given a ‘reasonable recovery,’ that rate could improve to one in seven or one in eight. That still contrasts with a 95% employment rate for that group in the mid-1960s. He said the U.S. can gain from increased global integration, but if it is to be politically sustainable it ‘has to work for people.’ That means job creation in the U.S. is a crucial issue.’

The question is what is the unemployment rate in other industrial nations?  The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency pops up as the first source on a Google search.  We know the unemployment reached 10% in the United States so I take these numbers to be the overall numbers for the year. I have marked significant countries in bold text.

Australia 5.7% (2009 est.)
4.242% (2008 est.)
Austria 4.7% (2009 est.)
3.858% (2008 est.)
Belgium 8.3% (2009 est.)
7% (2008 est.)
Canada 8.5% (2009 est.)
6.158% (2008 est.)
Czech Republic 9.3% (2009 est.)
5.433% (2008 est.)
Denmark 3.6% (2009 est.)
1.842% (2008 est.)
France 9.7% (2009 est.)
7.4% (2008 est.)
Germany 8.2% (2009 est.)
7.8% (2008 est.)
Japan 5.6% (2009 est.)
3.992% (2008 est.)
Korea, South 4.1% (2009 est.)
3.175% (2008 est.)
United Kingdom 8% (2009 est.)
5.642% (2008 est.)
United States 9.4% (2009 est.)
5.808% (2008 est.)

January Forecasts the Stock Market

Since 1950, the Standard & Poor 500’s performance in January of each year has been a pretty accurate indicator of how the stock market would perform for the entire year. There were only six years when the S&P 500’s January results went in one direction and the index moved significantly in the opposite direction for the full year, a forecasting accuracy of 90 percent. This history has been thoroughly discussed in the January 10, 2010 Pittsburgh Post Gazette. The Market Oracle in the UK wrote about the same phenomena on January 6, 2010. Even Mark Hulbert acknowledges the history of the January indicator although he does point out some flaws that I have not been able to verify.

January 2010 has been dismal for the market. Let’s face it, the economy sucks. I will be watching for growth indicators but right now the January theory is the one I will follow.

Fox News Is The Clear Cable Leader

If there’s any doubt about the mood and interest of the electorate, take a look at the cable television rankings.  The recent election night of January 19, 2010 comparison of viewers of FOX programming, which generally takes a right of center position to extreme right to MSNBC programming which generally takes a liberal point of view to CNN that tries to stay neutral but tends to be center to left of center.  These numbers definitely say Americans are more to the right of center.  Then again there are 300 million people in the United States.  Perhaps we need more information like what are the ages of this viewing audience?

FOXNEWS HANNITY 6,809,000


FOXNEWS GRETA 6,399,000

FOXNEWS O’REILLY 5,228,000

FOXNEWS BECK 3,446,000

FOXNEWS BAIER 3,338,000

FOXNEWS SHEP 3,241,000

CNN KING 1,681,000

CNN COOPER 1,508,000

CNN BROWN 1,308,000

MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,274,000

MSNBC MADDOW 1,236,000

CNN BLITZER 1,135,000

CNNHN BEHAR 845,000

MSNBC HARDBALL 798,000

Is AARP a Non-Profit Organization?

“UnitedHealth quarterly profit tops Wall Street views”

UnitedHealth’s fourth-quarter net income rose 30 percent to $944 million, or 81 cents per share, from $726 million, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier, when the company took a big litigation charge.”

This is the company that is in league with AARP as the low cost health care provider for senior citizens. Reuters reports that “For its UnitedHealthcare plans serving employers, the company reported a decline of 130,000 members from the end of the third quarter, to 24.63 million. But it said the plans would have seen growth of 40,000 members if not for job cuts at continuing clients. Total membership stood at 32 million at the end of December.”

Yes, I am a member of AARP.  I am not a United Health member and never have been.  The question is how much does AARP earn through their association with United Health Plan?

Well look what I found reading in part as follows. “The group and its subsidiaries collected more than $650 million in royalties and other fees last year from the sale of insurance policies, credit cards and other products that carry the AARP name, accounting for the majority of its $1.14 billion in revenue …”

My opinion is that AARP is a business that many over 50 years of age think is a non-profit organization.  It isn’t! 

Want proof?  Here are three of many links that also question the the AARP claim that they are a non-profit organization.  Then again may be these web sites have an axe to grind. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AARP

http://seniorjournal.com/NEWS/Politics/2008/20081119-AARPMayFaceSerious.htm

http://www.60plus.org/about-aarp.asp

A New Day for Journalism

I received two messages today that are telling the future of the internet. It’s going to cost more to obtain the news and data than it does today!

You want access to the Wall Street Journal? The cost is $1.99 per week. That was their ad. The New York Times will charge for access in 2011.

What can the print world do? Newspapers and magazines are losing money and many will be going out of business. Newsweek doesn’t provide news anymore. Now it is a magazine of essays and that isn’t working well. Last week’s Newsweek (dated January 18, 2010) had 84 pages. This week’s Newsweek has 52 pages.

Consumer’s Reports subscription includes on-line access for $26.00 per year. Without on-line access the cost is $19.00. If you just want on line access for a month the cost is $5.95.

I expect that all daily newspapers and most magazines will be offering their on-line access for a fee within the next two years.