The Trump Method

Donald Trump’s philosophy or perhaps call it style (could it be called a doctrine?) is use threats and insults to obtain results he wants. While his threats against his business adversaries may have worked to his benefit that same methodology has not worked for him as president. Just last month he tweeted about the “official end” of Iran.

Today in the news are two more threats. From the Los Angeles Times: “Trump keeps the threat of ICE raids and restates his demands. The president says the raids will be rescheduled in two weeks if Congress does not change asylum laws.” From Reuters: “Trump: ‘I did not send’ message to Tehran warning of attack but Iranian sources told Reuters that Trump had warned Tehran via Oman that a U.S. attack was imminent, but had said he was against war and wanted talks.”

The threat methodology has been used repeatedly. Has it worked? It certainly has frightened many people and has impacted the stock market.

Tariffs on all goods from Mexico
Tariffs on all steel and aluminum from Mexico and Canada
Tariffs on all imports from China
Auto tariffs on European cars
Tariffs on all European Union products
Withdraw from NATO
Demand South Korea pay for US Troops based in their country
“Fire and fury” use of military against North Korea
Cut off aid to Central American countries over a migrant caravans

Congress hasn’t caved in (no money for a wall) and neither have the North Koreans who have resumed testing missiles.

Welfare for Business is Good but Welfare for Families is Bad

In the U.S., it is rather commonplace to see welfare recipients demonized, people on food stamps ostracized, and anyone on any form of public assistance made to feel guilty that they need help. They are called lazy and incompetent, with little regard for circumstance or economic hardship. Sure, there are some people who take advantage of the system. But there are millions that desperately need help, and social welfare programs are the only thing standing between them and poverty.

However subsides to corporations are not deemed to be welfare.

The Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn announced a plan in 2017 to develop a factory hub south of Milwaukee, it’s promised to take a “Wisconsin First” approach to hiring local suppliers. While that phrase didn’t make it into the final contract, that’s how state officials and Foxconn have touted the deal, which involves about $4 billion in potential subsidies.

Foxconn is not alone in receiving government subsidies. Those subsidies are in the billions of dollars. According to The Cato Institute, corporate welfare handouts shot all the way up to $92 billion as of 2002.

Amazon recently conducted a contest to determine where they will open a second “headquarters.” NYC and Arlington, VA won the contest for Amazon’s split East Coast headquarters. Arlington lured in Amazon with promises of a helipad and a cash grant of up to $550 million. The NYC total amount in tax incentives and grants amounted to $3.4 Billion.

Then there are the subsidies for the movie industry called “tax incentives”. The California Film Commission administers the Film & Television Tax Credit Program 2.0 which provides tax credits based on qualified expenditures for eligible productions that are produced in California. The $1.55 billion program runs for 5 years, with a sunset date of June 30, 2020. Georgia allows for a 20 percent tax credit for companies that spend $500,000 or more on production or post production in Georgia, either in a single production or on multiple projects. The Georgia program has resulted in more film produced there than in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, individuals and families, you should be ashamed apply for any welfare help.

Robots are coming. A quarter US workers at risk!

As reported in USA Today one man is sitting “alone atop a tractor with a specialized mechanical attachment” that now performs the work of 30 people.

The Los Angeles Daily News reported “Members of the longshoremen and warehouse workers union picketed outside a meeting of the L.A. Board of Harbor Commissioners Thursday morning, Jan. 24, protesting the approval of a permit that will allow a major terminal operator to increase automation at the Port of Los Angeles.”

According to a new Brookings Institution report one fourth of all jobs in this country are at risk due to automation.

Without a job what will those people who lack the capacity to learn complex job functions do? This will most likely be a world wide problem. We as a nation will not let them starve. Most likely more people will be on a welfare program.

This won’t happen in 2019 but the structure of our society will be changing before this century is over.

Detroit started here

We are now in a Bear Market!

Bah! Humbug!

It’s Christmas Eve and here I am writing about something that is sad.

Stocks ended sharply lower today putting key equity benchmarks on track to log their worst month and a year in a decade. The S&P 500 slipped 2.7% to end near 2,352.

It should be obvious what the causes are.

1. Trade war with China.

2. Federal Reserve interest rates have risen four times this year.

3. President Donald Trump has discussed the possibility of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

4. There is a Federal government shutdown with no solution in sight. Another such shut down could occur on March 1, 2019 when the federal debt limit will be reached.

5. Growing concerns that the economic expansion may be coming to an end.

It’s helpful to know what a “bear market” is because based on history, it looks like we could be here for a while.

The term on Wall Street is synonymous with serious, long-lasting declines in stock markets. In numeric terms, a bear market is a 20 percent or more drop from a recent peak. The S&P 500 hit that milestone on Monday, dropping 20 percent from its 52-week high.

If this bear market is anything like the last time, it could take some time to recover. Since World War II, bear markets on average have fallen 30.4 percent and have lasted 13 months, according to analysis at Goldman Sachs and CNBC. When that milestone has been hit, it took stocks an average of 21.9 months to recover.

The good news is that bear markets do not last forever. So have a happy holiday and think positive about the new year.

“America was always great.”

Meghan McCain said during her father’s memorial service that “America was always great.” She also said. “The America of John McCain has no need to be made great again because America was always great.”

I would have added the words “and is still great today.” These have been my words from the beginning of the Trump candidacy for president. I just don’t have the same following as Meghan McCain.

Looking at some facts supports the contention that the United States continues to be the greatest country the world has ever known.

Our country’s GDP is over $19.3 trillion dollars. In second place is China at $12 trillion. Japan is 3rd at $4.5 trillion. Then Germany at $3.6 trillion

Note: This list is based IMF’s World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018.

Military strength? Global Firepower’s 2017 Military Strength Ranking uses more than 50 factors to assign a Power Index score to 133 countries.
The finalized Global Firepower ranking relies on over 55 individual factors to determine a given nation’s PowerIndex (‘PwrIndx’) score. Ranked number 1 is the United States. Number 2 is Russia and number three is China.

The country with the most billionaires? It is estimated there are 680 in the United States worth $3.2 billion. Second place is China with a wealth of $1.1 trillion.

The American dollar is recognized as the reserve currency of the world. Many countries use the US dollar exclusively: Ecuador, East Timor, El Salvador, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Turks and Caicos, British Virgin Islands, Zimbabwe. Many countries employ it as an accepted alternative to their own currency.

We have the universities people want to attend. The number of international students in the U.S. reached an all-time high – 1,078,822 students – during the 2016-2017 school year.

The American constitution and our capitalist enterprise system has made the United States the envy of the world. Our constitution guarantees freedom of religion, a free press, and a judicial system that protects the innocent. Immigrants migrate to the United States because they know that this is a country that rewards hard working people and helps the downtrodden.

We are great and we have always been great!

Intrusive Government Regulations

California issues over 130 different licenses for a variety of jobs. Those licenses are required by law to perform those functions. The licensing does not actually confirm competency.

Did you know that home improvement sales persons are required to be licensed?

My daughter has a license required for estheticians and her new career, making appointments at a car dealership, she is not a sales person, also required a license. The Department of Consumer Affairs issues or at least monitors all those 130 licenses. Their licensing does not include licenses for those in the legal profession (i.e. lawyers, legal document assistants, and notaries).

Yes, you need to be licensed to set up appointments at a car dealership. Her cost to do that was $55.00 for fingerprinting and $50 at the DMV. No test was required.

How about a cemetery broker or a cemetery sales person? You need a license.

Electronic and appliance repair also requires a license.

There is a State Board of Guide Dogs for the Blind. That provides “licensed Guide Dog Instructors and Schools.” “Instructors must have knowledge of the special needs of persons who are blind or visually impaired and be able to teach them, be able to train guide dogs such that blind or visually impaired persons would be safe under various traffic conditions, or be employed by a guide dog school certified by the International Guide Dog Federation or successor entity.”

Then there is the California State Athletic Commission whose mission is posted on-line. “The California State Athletic Commission (CSAC) regulates professional and amateur boxing, kickboxing and mixed martial arts throughout the State by licensing all participants and supervising the events. “The Commission is dedicated to the health, safety and welfare of the participants in regulated competitive sporting events, through ethical and professional service. California is the premier model for the safety and fairness of regulated sporting events.”

Of course there are legitimate reasons for licensing such as the practice of law and medicine. But do court reporters need to be certified?

The licensed contractor who added a room to my house did not pour a flat floor. I discovered that fact when I sold the house. That was a contractor who was on the bank’s approved list for home improvement loan contractors. So what value was his license?

I view these licensing regulations as an effort to limit private enterprise and an intrusion of government.

A Whale of a Good Time

It is rare that businesses do something that is really entertaining. This is what I call having fun with a new product.

(CNN) — Airbus is making a splash with the design for the latest version of its Beluga transport airplane.

The brand new BelugaXL (Airbus A330-700L) was unveiled in Toulouse, France, earlier this week with a very special paint job.

Its livery includes a whale-style nose cone, sparkling blue eyes and a smiling mouth.

Airbus tweeted an image of its super-sized transporter jet’s makeover along with the caption, “Whale hello there! Introducing the new BelugaXL dressed up in its livery for the first time”!

The smiling whale design was chosen by Airbus staff following a poll in which 20,000 employees were given six options and asked to choose their favorite. With 40% of the vote, it was the clear winner.

Skyscraper Building Boom

When we visited Toronto Canada for the first time in 2009 we were astonished by the number of high rise buildings under construction throughout the city. Walking on Yonge Street there were signs announcing plans for more sky scrapers to be built within the coming year or two. When we visited Toronto again in 2017 the construction of new sky scrapers had not diminished.

There is a high rise (skyscraper) construction boom under way in many major cities all over North America.

The Comcast Development Center in Philadelphia is adding a 1,121-foot-tall building to that city’s skyline.

Chicago is adding the Vista Tower. It is an 1,186-foot tall luxury hotel and condo tower. There is actually 50 high rises of 100 feet or more under construction in Chicago.

After 1992, when the California Plaza was built there were no new skyscrapers in Los Angeles until 2003. That new high-rise was just a 35 story building. Then starting in 2009 there has been a resurgence in high-rise construction throughout Los Angeles. The Wilshire Grand was just completed last year as the tallest building west of the Mississippi. It is about to be eclipsed by another high-rise at 1107 feet.

77-story planned Bunker Hill tower drawn into a photo of the area

The first phase of a massive redevelopment of the old Boston Garden site will ultimately add 1.87 million square feet of shops, restaurants, offices, hotel rooms, and residences and is set to finish sometime this year. Eventually, the joint project between developers Boston Properties and Delaware North will include a 38-story residential tower, 21-story office tower, as well as new transit connections and outdoor space.

There 14 high-rises under construction in San Francisco right now. The Salesforce Tower will be that city’s new tallest building beating the famous TransAmerica Tower.

Meanwhile Toronto Canada is trying its very best to be second to New York City with traffic, subways and over 60 high rises over 500 feet. Most of them are jammed into their downtown area. The tallest is 978 feet. A 1,043 foot tall 85 floor building is under construction now an even taller 98 story building is awaiting approval of their city council.

Artist conception – Tallest building tower “Yonge Street Living” is proposed for downtown Toronto

Most of these projects are a combination of offices, hotels, stores, and residences. Living closer to the center of the city means less commuting. That translates to less traffic on our congested roads and easier access to museums, entertainment centers, and hospitals. Add to that is we like living in busy cosmopolitan cities. The proof is the tourism to NYC, Las Vegas, and downtown San Francisco.