Los Angeles Gallery Update

Additional pictures of Mount Hollywood in Griffith Park. The 485mm zoom Panasonic DMC-FZ28 made it possible.

Now for the Sales Pitch

BusinessWeek’s April 19, 2010 edition cover story is titled “THE HOT HAND OBAMANOMICS IS WORKING BETTER THAN YOU THINK.” Newsweek’s April 19, 2010 edition cover story is titled “AMERICA’S BACK! THE REMARKABLE TALE OF OUR ECONOMIC TURNAROUND.”

These are sales pitches telling readers how much the economy has improved. Of course each article offers an array of graphs and art work to support their contentions. It’s true that corporations have seen improved earnings. That makes stockholders happy but most of us don’t own enough stock to experience any change in our lives.

From the Investment Company Institute web site: The average 401(k) account balance moved up and down with stock market performance, but over the entire five-year time period increased at an average annual growth rate of 7.2 percent, attaining $86,513 at year-end 2008.

Another blog titled Bargaineering provides this data from the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s latest report on Individual Account Retirement Plans by age group (August 2009):

< 35: $6,306

35 – 44: $22,460

45 – 54: $43,797

55 – 64: $69,127

65 – 75: $56,212

75+: (sample size insufficient)

Some words of warning after you read this:

Remember that this data is just data, you can’t draw any conclusions of what’s right or wrong from the statistics alone.

If you’re “below average,” you shouldn’t feel bad about it. Age is not a good indicator of where you are in your life. Some people get a later start and others have a more inflated lifestyle, how much you’ve saved by when should only give you a bar to reach.

If you’re “above average,” you shouldn’t rest on your laurels and think you’re doing great. Much like the words I wrote for those who are below, being above doesn’t mean you’ll have enough for retirement. You have a few years until retirement, a lot can happen then, so keep at it.

Average doesn’t mean someone in their 20s that has more than $6,306 is set in retirement (or that someone with less is screwed). It’s estimated that you should spend about 4% of your nest egg each year. At 4%, your nest egg should last long enough. How does that 4% figure translate to your estimated yearly expenses? Divide how much you think you’ll spend by 0.04 and you have your target (based on that rule of thumb) – $50,000 a year requires a nest egg of $1.25M.

Other web sites support the above data. This translates to most of us DO NOT have sufficient savings to experience a consequential impact of a rising stock market.

Since the week ending November 21, 2009 Weekly Initial Job Claims report from the U.S. Department of Labor have ranged from 432,000 to 496,000 people. For the week ending April 10, 2010 those new claims were 484,000. There has been no downward trend. The same department reports that over 15 million Americans are unemployed. The number of unemployed was just short of that number in August of 2009. The numbers have not changed since then.

Why aren’t Tea Party demonstrators parading about this issue? Apparently they are mostly White and well off!

America’s Economic Future

According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek’s Rich Miller there are two economic theories about the future of the United States.

“Mohamed El-Erian and his colleagues at Pacific Investment Management Co. coined the phrase “the new normal” to describe their vision of America’s economic future. The chief executive of the world’s largest bond fund argued that retrenchment by debt-laden consumers and tougher regulation of the financial-services industry would leave the U.S. with tepid annual growth of around 2% for years.”

Miller reports that Joseph Carson, an economist with AllianceBernstein (AB) in New York “posits” his new mix view that the economy will be “powered more by exports and business investment than by the traditional drivers of consumption and housing.”

I want to be the optimist about the future of the United States. It’s hard to be positive when unemployment in California is at 12.5 % and the signs of growth are few and far between. However, I found one outstanding example of new growth today. Boeing Company has reported they will speed up production of 747 and 777 models. The vast majority of the increased business will come from carriers in Latin America and Asia. This event supports Joseph Carson’s theory.

The Optimism Meter

Updated Feb. 5, 2010. Despite the new claims for unemployment rise there is reasons to be optimistic about the nation’s economy. I am not alone in this view. The January unemployment rate has actually dropped to 9.7%. BusinessWeek offers a small item in its Executive Summary titled the Optimism Meter. That has a thermometer from 0 to 100. It’s based upon a YouGov pollster measurement. The “proprietary” measurement offered by Bloomberg is now 59. That is the highest number reached since Bloomberg purchased the magazine.

Technology will lead the nation out of the recession. The evidence is growing every week. Apple and Google appear to be on a path to providing more smart phones at lower cost. Apple has introduced its i-Pad. Cisco is the only stock on the DOW that rose today. There is a new hunt for an Autism drug. For between around $300 and $500, you can buy a netbook and they are replacing laptop computers. Quallion LLC, the world’s largest manufacturer of lithium batteries, announced this week that they are building a new facility in the Sylmar area of Los Angeles at a cost of $85 million. The new facility will hire 200 employees.

Start smiling!

The Guide to Happiness

9 Things You Can Do to Be Happy in the Next 30 Minutes

Surprising ways to instantly improve your mood

by Gretchen Rubin on http://www.realsimple.com

Being happier doesn’t have to be a long-term ambition. You can start right now. In the next 30 minutes, tackle as many of the following suggestions as possible. Not only will these tasks themselves increase your happiness, but the mere fact that you’ve achieved some concrete goals will boost your mood.

1. Raise your activity level to pump up your energy. If you’re on the phone, stand up and pace. Take the stairs instead of the elevator. Put more energy into your voice. Take a brisk 10-minute walk. Even better…

2. Take a walk outside. Research suggests that light stimulates brain chemicals that improve mood. For an extra boost, get your sunlight first thing in the morning.

3. Reach out. Send an e-mail to a friend you haven’t seen in a while, or reach out to someone new. Having close bonds with other people is one of the most important keys to happiness. When you act in a friendly way, not only will others feel more friendly toward you, but you’ll also strengthen your feelings of friendliness for other people.

4. Rid yourself of a nagging task. Deal with that insurance problem, purchase something you need, or make that long-postponed appointment with the dentist. Crossing an irksome chore off your to-do list will give you a rush of elation.

5. Create a more serene environment. Outer order contributes to inner peace, so spend some time organizing bills and tackling the piles in the kitchen. A large stack of little tasks can feel overwhelming, but often just a few minutes of work can make a sizable dent. Set the timer for 10 minutes and see what you can do.

6. Do a good deed. Introduce two people by e-mail, take a minute to pass along useful information, or deliver some gratifying praise. In fact, you can also…

7. Save someone’s life. Sign up to be an organ donor, and remember to tell your family about your decision. Do good, feel good―it really works!

8. Act happy. Fake it ’til you feel it. Research shows that even an artificially induced smile boosts your mood. And if you’re smiling, other people will perceive you as being friendlier and more approachable.

9. Learn something new. Think of a subject that you wish you knew more about and spend 15 minutes on the Internet reading about it, or go to a bookstore and buy a book about it. But be honest! Pick a topic that really interests you, not something you think you “should” or “need to” learn about.

Some people worry that wanting to be happier is a selfish goal, but in fact, research shows that happier people are more sociable, likable, healthy, and productive―and they’re more inclined to help other people. By working to boost your own happiness, you’re making other people happier, too.

More Signs of Economic Recovery

A Parallel Turkey Universe?

from http://www.guy-sports.com/humor/pictures/picture_thanksgiving.htm

Green shoots of economic recovery can be found in many unusual places. This was brought to my attention by LogisticsTODAY. They are reporting that UPS (United parcel Service) is raising their rates an average of 4.9% in 2010. This is not an isolated event. The airlines started doing this early in 2009. American Airlines charges $20.00 for each checked bag. Some airlines even charge for coach seats that provide more leg room. Homes in my neighborhood had dropped in price byaas much as 50% just two months ago. From that low point the asking prices have increased by one third or more.

Finally the unemployment situation has improved with the drop in new claims for unemployment benefits to 466,000 per week from 501,000 last week. That is the first drop below the 500,000 mark since the week of November 1, 2008. This is a 7% drop in new claims. It won’t be straight line down but it is a significant decline from the high of 674,000 new claims last March 28.

In the area of politics this drop in new claims will be a White House argument that their stimulus strategy has worked. Republicans will contend that the recovery was the result of private enterprise doing its thing. Regardless of the cause, more of us will be celebrating a Happy Thanksgiving than was anticipated. The green shoots are a good thing.