Power outage at the Super Bowl

The 49ers were asleep for the entire first half of the game.  We all know that the Silicon Valley crowd would be rooting for San Francisco.  It’s a good bet that during the half time show those wise guy nerds on Technology Drive in San Jose quickly devised a virus that would shut down the power feed to the Super Dome.

Their theory was that the 49ers might wake up.  But alas, the Ravens were too powerful to stop.  A galant effort by the nerds.

Economic Facts

I have waited to write about this until this weekend hoping that economists and responsible government officials could offer reasonable explanations.  They have not!

The United States economy is in trouble and no one wants to talk about it!

The U.S. economy shrank by .1% in the last quarter of 2012.  That number would not be too bad if it weren’t for the fact that the economy grew by 3.1% in the third quarter of the year.  That is a change in direction of 3.2%.  No one wants to admit the economy is in trouble. Instead all the talking heads and all the government leaders are talking up positive data.  The reasoning appears to be “if we ignore the situation maybe it will go away. Let’s be positive.”

Some worthwhile points:

  • Every wage earner saw his take home pay decrease by 2% thanks to the expired payroll tax holiday.
  • Companies don’t expand and don’t hire when there is no demand for their products.
  • The real unemployment rate is not publicized because it is too frightening for most people (especially those in government) to confront.  It is the “Total unemployed…” from a monthly labor report in Table A-15 called U-6.  The rate was 14.4% for January.  The number has been unchanged for the past three months.  This real unemployment rate peaked at 17.1% in October 2009.  The historical typical rate has been between 7% and 8.5%.
  • The United States must add more than 200,000 jobs a month to reduce the unemployment rate.  150,000 new jobs simply meets the requirements of the growing work force.  This fact has been repeated on newscast after newscast.  Thus 157,000 new jobs in January are not satisfactory.
  • Housing prices may have leveled off but they are far from those that existed in 2007.
  • Corporate profits are for the most part up and that has been great for those who have significant stock ownership.  Most Americans consider themselves well off if they have a $200,000 in retirement savings.  Government statistics indicate most families have $50,000 in savings.  Most people are not major beneficiaries of the past year’s increased S&P 500.
  • The coming sequestration or budget cuts will result in contractor and federal government employee layoffs.  Both political parties seem to have settled on this event starting March 2013.  There will be a cut of $85.4 billion of both defense and non-defense spending.  That is the law that congress passed.

Our Congress needs to start developing solutions rather than arguing.  Politics are destroying this nation.

Retired Cardinal Roger Mahony Stripped of His Duties

Roger Mahony

 

This monster makes me ill.  I show his photo only so there is no mistake who this is about.

For reasons that are utterly senseless there is no statute of limitations for traffic violations but there is a statute of limitations for those who molest children and the people who protect the molesters.

Retired Cardinal Roger Mahony’s  successor, Archbishop Jose Gomez, has stripped Mahony of all his duties. The Archbishop said, “The behavior described in these files is terribly sad and evil. There is no excuse,no explaining
away what happened to these children.”

February 1, 2013:  OOPS!  Wrong again!  Mahony is still considered a priest in good standing according to a local newspaper.  Someone asked if he is still a Cardinal wouldn’t he still participate in selecting the next pope?  Catholics are the victims.

The complete AP article is here.

Credit Cards Can Be Better Than Cash

I bought a new bed using a credit card.  I could have written a check for the full amount but the bed store offered a one year no interest payment plan.  Why not? I thought.  So the bed was to be delivered three days later.

Oh, there is one thing I neglected to tell you.  The old bed had a foam topper that was purchased separately and has been on top for about seven or eight years.  My beautiful wife said it’s not the topper that is sagging it’s the bed.  OK, I agreed without challenging her wisdom.  However, the next day, after I had ordered the new bed, she decides to remove the topper and check the mattress.  “Look at this” she says, “the mattress without the topper seems quite comfortable.”  I lay down on the bed and surprise.  It feels identical to the new bed.  I called and cancelled the bed order!  Did I yell at my wife?  No!  Was I happy the bed was bought using a credit card? Yes!

Thus you have learned one of the benefits of credit card purchases.  If you have a problem with a product you’ve purchased – it’s damaged or defective, or is never delivered ­you have extra legal protection if you bought the item with a credit card. Federal law gives consumers the right to withhold payment on credit card purchases in certain situations.

Try to resolve the dispute directly with the seller. If you call the seller or visit in person and don’t get a resolution, send a letter so that the issue is documented. In the meantime, don’t pay the amount that is in dispute, the California Department of Con­sumer Affairs says.

If the problem remains unresolved, call your credit card company and tell it you want to withhold payment for the disputed transaction. Follow up with a letter to the card company, and send a copy to the seller. This will “demonstrate to the seller that you intend to follow through with your complaint, and that will increase the chance that the seller will resolve the problem voluntarily,” the consumer agency said.

The credit card company will contact the seller and try to resolve the dispute. While the item is under investigation, your card issuer may not report you as “delinquent” for withholding payment, provided that you follow the steps above. But the card company can describe the amount as “disputed.” “Since the dispute probably will end up on your credit record, the right to withhold should never be used frivolously,” the consumer agency said.

Your right to withhold payments does not apply if the transaction was for less than $50, or if it took place more than 100 miles from your home and in a state other than your own. But those restrictions are waived if the credit card was issued by the seller – a department store credit card, for example.

You can withhold payment only if you use your card as a credit card. Using it as a debit card is like paying cash.

I Think You’re The Father of One of My Kids…’

A guy goes to the supermarket and notices a very attractive woman waving at him.

She says, ‘Hello.’

He’s rather taken aback because he can’t place where he knows her from. So he asks, ‘Do you know me?’

To which she replies, ‘I think you’re the father of one of my kids.’

Now his mind travels back to the only time he has ever been unfaithful to his wife.

So he asks, ‘Are you the stripper from the bachelor party that I made love to on the Pool table, with all my buddies watching, while your partner whipped my butt with wet celery?’

She looks into his eyes and says calmly, ‘No, I’m your son’s teacher.’

Golden Years – A Tale of Madness and Greed

A story from Businessweek magazine.

One Nevada man prepared for everything but the inevitable

By Devin Leonard

Walter Samaszko Jr. was not a guy who wanted company. He cov­ered the windows of his house in Carson City, Nev., with cardboard so the neighbors couldn’t see inside. He made the postman stick the mail through the slot in his garage rather than coming to the front door. He was so good at keeping people away that when he died of heart failure at age 69 in June, nobody noticed until his house began to smell. Some­one called the sheriff’s depart­ment. A hazmat team removed Samaszko along with part of the floor he was stuck to.

That’s when every­body found out why he hadn’t been more sociable: The dour, white-haired re­cluse had been hoarding $7 mil­lion worth of gold coins, most of them hidden in the crawl space beneath the house. Some were in an old washing ma­chine. There were British sov­ereigns dating back to the 1840s, Aus­trian ducats, and South African Kruggerands. But mostly Samaszko had col­lected rolls and rolls of $20 American gold pieces, the kind with double eagles on them. He also had $12,000 in cash, a stock account worth $165,000-and $200 in the bank.

The person who discovered Sa­maszko’s secret was Jeri Vine, a local real estate broker hired to clean up his house. She spent five days comb­ing through his possessions. Samaszko had been prepared for the worst. He owned several guns, gas masks, and survivalist man­uals. His cupboards were filled with canned The person who discovered Sa­maszko’s secret was Jeri Vine, a local real estate broker hired to clean up his house. She spent five days comb­ing through his possessions.

Samaszko had been prepared for the worst. He owned several guns, gas masks, and survivalist man­uals. His cupboards were filled with canned tuna fish. He had a lot of Johnny Mathis tapes. Vine threw most of it out. “We had like a 33 ­yard dumpster on the driveway,” she says. “I filled that thing.”

On the fourth day, Vine opened a metal ammunition box in the garage. It was full of gold coins in plastic cases. She called Alan Glover, the public administrator of Carson City. “Alan, get over here immediately!” she told him. “There’s so much money it’s unbelievable.” The sheriff’s department re­turned to the house, this time with metal I detectors. It took Glover and three attor­neys two days to count all the coins. With the help of a numismatic expert, they de­termined that Samaszko’s clutch was worth $7 million. The gold is being stored in a vault in Reno until a local probate court judge decides its fate.

Samaszko may have been prepared for a societal collapse, but not for his own end. He had no will. Nor did he have any children. Glover was able to locate a first cousin, Arlene Magdanz, a part ­time teacher in San Rafael, Calif., who hadn’t seen him in years. Glover expects the probate court to release the fortune to Magdanz after the IRS extracts its cut. (He estimates the federal govern­ment’s take will be about $800,000.) The tale of the elderly recluse who turned out to be a millionaire became a brief sen­sation, with Vine and Glover appearing on the Today show.

Vine eventually sold Samaszko’s house for an un­disclosed price. Some prospec­tive buyers just wanted to see if there was any more gold hidden there. “One guy had his contractor friend go underneath the house,”  Vine says. “I told him we went through that place with a fine-toothed comb. Never heard from him again.”

It’s easy to see why Samaszko’s death and the revelations that followed fascinate people. How many of us would have kept $7 million in a crawl space and not touched it? It makes you wonder what other secrets died with him.

Calculated Risk

When the Los Angeles Times prints an article about a blogger that is not associated with the paper that is news.  Appearing on today’s front page of the business section it was an eye catcher.  Bill McBride predicted the housing crash in 2008 and more recently the bottom of the housing market in 2012.  The Times article is here.  I have added Calculated Risk blog to the listing at the right.

Some Investments are Appropriate

Why are you relying in savings account interest?  Some banks are paying .05% APY on certificates of deposit.  I saw an ad this morning trumpeting 0.9% APY.  That is an unacceptable rate of return.

As we start the new year we are all looking at our savings and the earnings those savings provided.  Commentaries on financial networks like CNBC and in the financial sections of newspapers all say that most of us have put our money in low interest earning savings accounts at banks.  The reason is obvious.  We fear losing those hard gained savings.

Businessweek December 24-Janauary 6 edition cover story Titled “Get Rich Slow” points out that at today’s bank interest rates it would take 1,387 years to double your money.  Yes, the Federal Reserve is trying to encourage you to invest elsewhere.  Honestly there are many investments that pay more than FDIC insured savings accounts.  Some are just as safe as a savings account.  My favorite is Ginnie Mae Bonds that are “providing a guaranty backed by the full faith and credit of the United States”.  These bonds currently pay an interest rate of 2.68%.  They have earned higher interest rates in past years.  According to Morningstar, if you had invested $10,000 in January 2003 and had all interest re-invested in GNMA bonds, the current value would be $16,398.

There are other somewhat more risky investments but those risks are minimal.  Consider Procter and Gamble the world’s largest consumer goods company, whose products like Tide detergent and Gillette razors are in 98 percent of U.S. households.  Other products of theirs are Crest Toothpaste, Pantene Shampoo, Duracell, and Prilosec OTC.  That is not the complete list that encompasses at least 32 items.  The share price has varied over the decade but it has been a reliable dividend payer that now yields 3.19%.  As one lady told me, “I do not care what the share price is as long as I receive my dividends”.  She lives in an expensive independent living facility and draws her income to pay the bill from the dividends.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Egspc#symbol=^gspc;range=3m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

The S&P 500 was at 1257.60 on January 1, 2012.  Today the value is 1502.96.  That is a 19.5% increase in value.  There is no guarantee this growth will continue.  Is this a bubble?  Perhaps! 

Can you afford to be a non-participant?  If the market drops 10% just sell and you just might have more money than you do today.

Senator Dianne Feinstein’s Weapons Ban Legislation

Dianne Feinstein & assault weapons

This proposed law may never be passed by Congress but Senator Dianne Feinstein has nothing to lose and everything to gain.  If passed, this legislation will help reduce the homicide rates in our nation.

It has been reported that the Administration is focusing on high-capacity magazines because they are the real issue and it is believed that there can be agreement on that issue. 

Assault Weapons Ban of 2013

The legislation bans the sale, transfer, manufacturing and importation of:

1. All semiautomatic rifles that can accept a detachable magazine and have at least one military feature: pistol grip; forward grip; folding, telescoping, or detachable stock; grenade launcher or rocket launcher; barrel shroud; or threaded barrel.

2. All semiautomatic pistols that can accept a detachable magazine and have at least one military feature: threaded barrel; second pistol grip; barrel shroud; capacity to accept a detachable magazine at some location outside of the pistol grip; or semiautomatic version of an automatic firearm.

3. All semiautomatic rifles and handguns that have a fixed magazine with the capacity to accept more than 10 rounds.

4. All semiautomatic shotguns that have a folding, telescoping, or detachable stock; pistol grip; fixed magazine with the capacity to accept more than 5 rounds; ability to accept a detachable magazine; forward grip; grenade launcher or rocket launcher; or shotgun with a revolving cylinder.

5. All ammunition feeding devices (magazines, strips, and drums) capable of accepting more than 10 rounds.

6. 157 specifically-named firearms (listed at the end of this document).

The legislation excludes the following weapons from the bill:

a. Any weapon that is lawfully possessed at the date of the bill’s enactment;

b. Any firearm manually operated by a bolt, pump, lever or slide action;

c. Assault weapons used by military, law enforcement, and retired law enforcement; and

d. Antique weapons.

The legislation protects hunting and sporting firearms:

i. The bill excludes 2,258 legitimate hunting and sporting rifles and shotguns by specific make and model.

The legislation strengthens the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban and state bans by:

ii. Moving from a 2-characteristic test to a 1-characteristic test.

The bill also makes the ban harder to evade by eliminating the easy-to-remove bayonet mounts and flash suppressors from the characteristics test.

iii. Banning dangerous aftermarket modifications and workarounds.

iv. Bump or slide fire stocks, which are modified stocks that enable semi-automatic weapons to fire at rates similar to fully automatic machine guns.

v. So-called “bullet buttons” that allow the rapid replacement of ammunition magazines, frequently used as a workaround to prohibitions on detachable magazines.

vi. Thumbhole stocks, a type of stock that was created as a workaround to avoid prohibitions on pistol grips.

vii. Adding a ban on the importation of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines.

viii. Eliminating the 10-year sunset that allowed the original federal ban to expire.

The legislation addresses the millions of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines currently in existence by:

i. Requiring a background check on all sales or transfers of a grandfathered assault weapon.

ii. This background check can be run through the FBI or, if a state chooses, initiated with a state agency, as with the existing background check system.

iii. Prohibiting the sale or transfer of large-capacity ammunition feeding devices lawfully possessed on the date of enactment of the bill.

iv. Allowing states and localities to use federal Byrne JAG grant funds to conduct a voluntary buy-back program for grandfathered assault weapons and large-capacity ammunition feeding devices.

v. Imposing a safe storage requirement for grandfathered firearms, to keep them away from prohibited persons.

vi. Requiring that assault weapons and large-capacity ammunition feeding devices manufactured after the date of the bill’s enactment be engraved with the serial number and date of manufacture of the weapon.

List of Firearms Prohibited by Name

Rifles:
Pistols:
Shotguns:
Belt-fed semiautomatic firearms:

Religion Earning a Bad Reputation

“Christian” counseling must counsel the soul with techniques generated by the Spirit of God; counseling which is not Christian counsels the soul with techniques generated by the spirit of this world.  Jewish counseling seems to be about the issues that any therapist might provide but with a view relating to Jewish perspectives of life.

A well-known religious counselor in New York’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish community was sentenced to 103 years in prison for sexual abuse. Nechemya Weberman, 54, was convicted of 59 counts of sexual abuse and child endangerment on December 10, including the sexual abuse of a young girl he was counseling for over three years.  Read it all at The Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile the Los Angeles Times and Los Angeles Daily News reported that “the statute of limitations is the main stumbling block to prosecuting Cardinal Roger M. Mahony, L.A.’s former archbishop, and aides in the sex abuse files from the 1980s released this week, experts say.”

My questions:

  • Why is there a statute of limitations for child molestation crimes?
  • Why are words spoken in a Catholic confessional protected from criminal prosecution?
  • What kind of society exists in America that excuses the misbehavior of members of the clergy?
  • Is this part of the Twilight Zone world that has invaded our world?

We hold religious leaders to high moral and ethical standards.  Many people need and want the guidance they offer.  Recent behavior of those leaders tells me that our faith may be misplaced.