Who will win the election on November 5?

I am going with the prediction of Allan Lichtman.  Lichtman is a historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the past 10 presidential elections, has confirmed his prediction on which candidate will reclaim the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

Since 1984, Lichtman has published his “Keys to the White House” manuscript, in which he predicts which candidate will claim the presidency.

He’s made the correct prediction in 10 recent presidential elections, except for the razor-thin George W. Bush victory in the 2000 election over Al Gore, who Lichtman predicted would be the winner.

He bases his prediction on thirteen keys, or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”

The keys include whether:

  • The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.
  • The sitting president is running for reelection.
  • The White House party is avoiding a primary contest.
  • There is a third-party challenger.
  • The short-term economy is strong.
  • The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms.
  • The White House party has made major changes to national policy.
  • There is sustained social unrest during the term.
  • The White House is untainted by scandal, the incumbent party is charismatic.
  • The challenger is uncharismatic.
  • The incumbent is charismatic.
  • The White House party has a major failure in foreign policy.
  • The White House party has foreign policy success.

Incendiary Rhetoric Likely to become more Harsh as Election Day approaches

J.D. Vance warns calling a candidate a ‘fascist’ can lead to violence but doesn’t mention that’s what Trump calls Harris. Trump also called Harris a communist.

Presidential historian on Monday’s CNN NewsNight panelist Tim Naftali suggested in the aftermath of the second assassination attempt on Donald Trump that Trump made himself a bigger target by “using the rhetoric of the 30s.” Fortunately, New York Post reporter Lydia Moynihan and CNN commentator Scott Jennings were also there to recall the violent rhetoric and “bunch of lies” directed towards Trump over the past several years.

Naftali declared, “I remember so well July 13th. And I remember the conversations in the days that followed. I remember President Biden’s speech about toning down the rhetoric, and I saw the rhetoric toned down on both sides and then 20 minutes into his acceptance speech, Donald Trump turned up the volume.”

Both Vance and the former president, who said Democrats calling him (Trump) a “threat to democracy” is “what is causing me to be shot at,” have been cited for the hypocrisy of their pleas to deescalate incendiary discourse.

Could someone get shot and killed? The answer is YES! There has already been two efforts to kill Donald Trump.

Have you forgotten?

Former President Donald J. Trump has called the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a “love fest” and the jailed rioters “hostages.” Credit…Jason Andrew for The New York Times

Trump falsely claimed that he had nothing to do with the assault, blaming it on former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the police officers who protected the building that day against a mob of his supporters.

On January 6, 2021, the United States Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., was attacked by a mob of supporters of then–U.S. President Donald Trump in an attempted self-coup d’éta  two months after his defeat in the 2020 presidential election. They sought to keep Trump in power by occupying the Capitol and preventing a joint session of Congress counting the Electoral College votes to formalize the victory of President-elect Joe Biden. 

In the Trump-Harris face-off there was a clear Winner

It’s pretty clear to me that on Tuesday night, Vice President Kamala Harris won what may be the only debate between herself and former President Donald Trump.

I watched the entire debate. As Trump was speaking I myself thinking about Captain Queeg, the unstable skipper of the destroyer-minesweeper U.S.S. Caine in The Caine Mutiny movie. In the movie a doctor on cross examination admits that Queeg has symptoms that fit the profile of a paranoid personality disorder.

That is what I believe Trump has, a paranoid personality disorder.

Trump looked angry for most of the debate.

Sadly there is no requirement of mental fitness to qualify for president of the United States.

Donald Trump is mentally unqualified to be President of the United States

Donald Trump suffers from mental deficiencies and should not be elected president of the United States.

Here is his reply to the question of providing affordable child care. It is a word salad.

“It’s a very important issue. But I think when you talk about the kind of numbers that I’m talking about that — because the child care is, child care, it’s, couldn’t, you know, there’s something, you have to have it. In this country, you have to have it. But when you talk about those numbers compared to the kind of numbers that I’m talking about, by taxing foreign nations at levels that they’re not used to, but they’ll get used to it very quickly — and it’s not going to stop them from doing business with us, but they’ll have a very substantial tax when they send product into our country. Those numbers are so much bigger than any numbers that we’re talking about, including child care, that it’s going to take care.”

Denial of the Holocaust in the Fall of 2024

Do you really want to elect Mr. Donald J. Trump and Senator JD Vance to the positions of president and vice president of the United States?

This is too sickening to even talk about or write about but I must.

Senator JD Vance, the running mate of former President Donald J. Trump, has declined to denounce the right-wing talk-show host Tucker Carlson for praising and airing the views of a Holocaust revisionist who falsely claimed that the Nazis’ destruction of European Jewry was not an intentional act of premeditated genocide.

Mr. Carlson is no stranger to controversy, but his recent interview with Darryl Cooper, whom he described as “the best and most honest popular historian in the United States,” has faced particularly fierce blowback.

The Nazis’ killing of almost six million Jews was meticulously planned, documented and pursued even after the tide of World War II had turned and Germany’s defeat was assured.

The German penal code prohibits publicly denying the Holocaust and disseminating Nazi propaganda, both off- and online. This includes sharing images such as swastikas, wearing an SS uniform and making statements in support of Hitler.

White House spokesman Andrew Bates said in a statement: “Giving a microphone to a Holocaust denier who spreads Nazi propaganda is a disgusting and sadistic insult to all Americans, to the memory of the over six million Jews who were genocidally murdered by Adolf Hitler, to the service of the millions of Americans who fought to defeat Nazism and to every subsequent victim of antisemitism.”

Vice President Kamala Harris is Likely Winner of the November Election

Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year.

It’s Vice President Kamala Harris.

Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.”

Who is Allan Lichtman?

Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from the American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman earned a Ph.D. specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.

I only hope Harris doesn’t let this prediction go top her head and she decides to limit her campaigning.

Today in History: September 3, A Very Consequential Date

On Sept. 3, 1783, representatives of the United States and Britain signed the Treaty of Paris, which officially ended the Revolutionary War and recognized U.S. sovereignty.

In 1939, Britain, France, Australia and New Zealand declared war on Germany, two days after the Nazi invasion of Poland; in a radio address, Britain’s King George VI said, “With God’s help, we shall prevail.”