RECONCILIATION

Life is all about reconciliation.

America’s strength is based upon reconciliation.  A synonym for reconciliation is compromise.  That is the basis for our form of government going back to Benjamin Franklin.  The first 10 amendments to the constitution were a gesture of compromise by those believing the basic document was sufficient.

Of course feuding married couples try to find reconciliation of their marital disagreements through some form of compromise.  Just enter the words “marital reconciliation” into Google and the results are significant.  Many web sites offer success stories.

Oh those jobs I accepted to put food on the table and pay the bills.  They were jobs I thought I would never take.  Higher earning Americans cannot survive on unemployment insurance for very long without impacting their savings.   

The Senate just faced a reconciliation bill on health care.  Unfortunately the Republicans want to make some political capital out of this situation.  They are more of a flag waving group than Democrats.  Apparently they do not see that they are destroying a basic tenant of our democracy.

Pareto’s Law

About 30 years ago a mathematician working at my employer told me about Pareto’s Law or principle and how it worked.  I had recalled learning about the theory in college but never had an opportunity to apply its use. 

The theory was devised by Vilfredo Pareto.  In 1906, the Italian economist created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that twenty percent of the people owned eighty percent of the wealth. The Pareto law, in its generalized form, states that 80 % of the objectives – or more generally the effects – are achieved with 20 % of the means – or more.  In other words, not always in the exact 80/20 ratio, this phenomenon seems to occur in many venues.

If you apply the principle to the distribution of wealth in the United States you reach the conclusion that about 20% of the population does own 80% of the wealth.  Although it is not precise, G. William Domhoff’s research about America’s wealth distribution seems to hold up fairly well.

Back at the factory I worked in 30 years ago the sales of our 110 unit product line did break down to 80% of the revenue coming from 20% if the items we offered.  It was almost exactly in that ratio.  I was astonished how closely the numbers were aligned.

I am willing to bet that 80% of the revenue in any super market is derived from 20% of the stocked items plus or minus 3%.

Occupations with the Largest Employment Growth

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the top 30 occupations in employment growth through 2018. There is more detail on the BLS web site. This is a sortable listing using Microsoft Excel.  You can copy this listing into Excel. 

 Occupation  Employment Change
         
  2008 2018 Number Percent
      (In thousands)  
Registered nurses 2,619 3,200 582 22.2
         
Home health aides 922 1,383 461 50.0
         
Customer service representatives 2,252 2,652 400 17.7
         
Combined food preparation and 2,702 3,096 394 14.6
serving workers, including fast food        
         
Personal and home care aides 817 1,193 376 46.0
         
Retail salespersons 4,489 4,864 375 8.4
         
Office clerks, general 3,024 3,383 359 11.9
         
Accountants and auditors 1,291 1,570 279 21.7
         
         
Nursing aides, orderlies, and 1,470 1,746 276 18.8
attendants        
         
Postsecondary teachers 1,699 1,956 257 15.1
         
Construction laborers 1,249 1,505 256 20.5
         
Elementary school teachers,     1,550 1,794 244 15.8
except special education             
         
Truck drivers, heavy and  1,798 2,031 233 13.0
tractor-trailer        
         
Landscaping and groundskeeping 1,206 1,423 217 18.0
 workers        
         
Bookkeeping, accounting, 2,064 2,276 212 10.3
and auditing clerks          
         
Executive secretaries and  1,594 1,799 204 12.8
administrative assistants        
         
Management analysts 747 925 178 23.9
         
         
Computer software engineers, 515 690 175 34.0
applications        
         
Receptionists and information clerks 1,139 1,312 173 15.2
         
Carpenters 1,285 1,450 165 12.9
         
Medical assistants 484 648 164 33.9
         
First-line supervisors/managers of  1,457 1,618 160 11.0
office and administrative support         
workers        
         
Network systems and data  292 448 156 53.4
communications analysts        
         
Licensed practical and licensed  754 909 156 20.7
vocational nurses        
         
Security guards 1,077 1,229 153 14.2
         
Waiters and waitresses 2,382 2,533 152 6.4
         
Maintenance and repair workers,  1,361 1,509 148 10.9
general        
         
Physicians and surgeons 661 806 144 21.8
         
Child care workers 1,302 1,444 142 10.9
         
Teacher assistants 1,313 1,448 135 10.3

Health Care We Can’t Afford

While the passing of health care reform may be a major improvement in the availability of care it is coming at a significant cost to this nation.  I do not subscribe to many, perhaps most, of Republican objections.  America will have to find money to cover the cost of health care that many people cannot afford.

As it stands now the cost of this bill will be a major burden on senior citizens.  That is a reduction of Medicare payouts of $500 billion.  Senior citizens will most likely punish the Democratic Party by voting many of their members out of office next November.      

America’s Economic Future

According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek’s Rich Miller there are two economic theories about the future of the United States.

“Mohamed El-Erian and his colleagues at Pacific Investment Management Co. coined the phrase “the new normal” to describe their vision of America’s economic future. The chief executive of the world’s largest bond fund argued that retrenchment by debt-laden consumers and tougher regulation of the financial-services industry would leave the U.S. with tepid annual growth of around 2% for years.”

Miller reports that Joseph Carson, an economist with AllianceBernstein (AB) in New York “posits” his new mix view that the economy will be “powered more by exports and business investment than by the traditional drivers of consumption and housing.”

I want to be the optimist about the future of the United States. It’s hard to be positive when unemployment in California is at 12.5 % and the signs of growth are few and far between.  However, I found one outstanding example of new growth today.  Boeing Company has reported they will speed up production of 747 and 777 models.  The vast majority of the increased business will come from carriers in Latin America and Asia.  This event supports Joseph Carson’s theory.

A Richman’s Roadmap

Republican Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin’s 1st District has an interesting web site titled The Roadmap Plan.  There was a very appealing article in Newsweek about Mr. Ryan and he has appeared on Hardball with Chris Matthews on MSNBC sounding like a very reasonable person.  If ever there was a likely candidate for Republican president it is Congressman Ryan.  The problem is he proposes changes to America that every wealthy person will love.  After you have read The Roadmap Plan you can read my rebuttal below. 

-Health Care

An interesting proposal but there is limited effort to control the actual cost of care.  That was President Obama’s number one priority and it was forgotten shortly after his push for health care reform.  Anthem Blue Cross raising rates as much as 39% in CA is a very loud message.  What is the solution to this issue?

-Medicare

I believe this program was established for those who could not afford private insurance.  If this revised program will leave people penniless when there is a major medical issue, it does not answer the needs of the elderly.  This is a matter of public policy.  Does society tell the elderly when you run out of money you will die because we do not want to pay your bills?

-Social Security

If the government will “guarantee that individuals will not lose a dollar they contribute to their accounts, even after inflation” that will not satisfy the payment rates currently provided to a retiree who lives 20 past his retirement date.

Where will the money come from to support current pay out rates?

-Tax Reforms

There is at least one aspect of this complicated program that I do understand.  “Eliminating taxes on interest, capital gains, and dividends” will be a great benefit to the wealthy.  People with earnings of million of dollars per year in pay will invest their money but won’t pay taxes on the investment income.  How nice for the millionaires of the country.  They will pay no taxes if their income is in the form of stock options and other non salary payments.

The frightening thing is that many Americans might buy Congressman Ryan’s ideas as the best roadmap for America.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

We are facing congressional failure.  It’s primarily the fault of the Democrats because they control both houses of Congress.  Instead of focusing on the number one problem in the country they focused on health care.  Of course health care is important but the first issue is money to pay the daily bills.

California has a civilian workforce of over 18 million people.  12.5% are unemployed.  According to state statistics employment in the manufacture of durable goods has declined by 9.6% in the past year.  The decline in non-durable goods employment has been 7.4%. 

Everywhere we look, we see that the goods we buy are manufactured in another country.  Services are no different.  Have you called Citibank, Earthlink, or Dell?  Help lines are provided in India or Philippines.  Pricewaterhouse Coopers has outsourced their data maintenance to India.

The highly respected Institute for Supply Management monthly report has been above 50% starting in August 2009.  A number of 50% or higher is supposed to indicate a growing economy.  While new orders have provided a positive situation for the companies, it has not translated into needed jobs.  ISM, the AMA, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other manufacturing associations need to work together by hiring lobbyists who will fight for laws rewarding American manufacturing and penalizing imported goods.

When you phone or email your congressman and senators you need to yell at them “Jobs. What are you doing to encourage job creation in this country?”

A Congressman Takes His Constituents for Granted

On February 20 I wrote this email letter to my congressman, Henry Waxman, using the contact on line service on his web site.

There are three really significant issues in America and this district today. 1) Jobs, 2) Banking Industry Controls, and 3) Health Insurance.  They should be addressed in that order. 

Jobs: How do you propose to re-build America’s employment when we have exported all our manufacturing and most of our service jobs to other countries?

Banking Industry Controls: Without the Glass-Steagall Act there is no protection from another financial meltdown.  When will we see the imposition of new controls? 

Health Insurance: You know what Anthem Blue Cross will be doing to their premiums. Rather than directing your efforts at covering the uninsured, what laws do you intend to support that will lower the cost of health insurance for those now covered? 

On March 5 I received a reply.  However rather than answering my questions a pre-written letter was sent with a modification in the last paragraph.  The letter reviewed all the legislation that has been enacted related to the recession and “steps toward long term deficit reduction with the enactment of Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) legislation, which requires that any new federal spending be paid for with spending cuts or revenue increases.”  

Finally in the last inserted paragraph, the writer responding to my inquiry wrote:

I am committed to doing all I can to promote employment, economic growth, and financial reforms.  I would welcome your further comments on this important effort and hope you will continue to stay in touch with me on issues of concern.

I am supposed to be happy with this foolishness.  I will not vote for Mr. Waxman’s re-election.

“The Hurt Locker” and Pro-War Hollywood

“Right wing” groups have bashed Hollywood for years. They call all the Hollywood types left wing, anti-war, pinkos and other derogatory names.  So how did those Hollywood types vote “The Hurt Locker” best picture of the year, Kathryn Bigelow best director, and four other Academy awards?

My theory is that the members of the Academy really are trying to find the best picture of the year as well as those films achieving all the other accolades that are given to an outstanding film.  Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and all the rest of that crowd will not attempt to take on this proven contradiction to their non-stop meaningless blab.  In the long run they will probably still continue bashing Hollywood.  After all they have an audience to entertain.

You think English is easy???

1) The bandage was wound around the wound.

2) The farm was used to produce the produce .

3) We must polish the Polish furniture.

4) I did not object to the object.

5) The insurance was invalid for the invalid.

6) He could lead if he would get the lead out.

7) When shot at the dove, it dove into the bushes

8) The dump was so full that it had to refuse more refuse.

9) The insurance was invalid for the invalid.

10) If you read this far, you ought to read the rest of the On Language entries in this blog.