Tag: iranian nuclear ambitions

North Korea’s lessons for an Iran Deal

If you think the Iran nuclear deal is a breakthrough, said Max Boot, in contemporary.com, consider how the same approach worked with North Korea. The 1994 Agreed Framework was supposed to prevent Pyongyang from developing nukes. But North Korea cheated, developed a uranium enrichment program on the sly, and tested its first bomb in 2006.

“Today it is a full-fledged nuclear power.” Last week, Chinese experts warned that Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal is more advanced than previously feared, with an estimated 20 warheads and another 20 on the way over the next year. U.S. defense officials believe North Korea can now feasibly mount a nuclear bomb on an intercontinental ballistic missile, with enough range to hit California. “It’s not too hard to imagine, a decade from now, reading similar reports” about Iran. And whereas North Korea is “a declining, bankrupt” regime whose leadership only wants to stay in power, Iran is an “expansionist state” with oil wealth, hostility toward Israel, and a goal of exporting its Shiite Islamic revolution throughout the region. The U.S. was duped by a untrustworthy dictatorship before. Why repeat that mistake?

There is NO PROOF We Can Trust Iran

The agreement with Iran over its right to a nuclear program that is for peaceful purposes must be viewed with significant skepticism.  There should be no agreement without a complete and verifiable elimination of all their facilities that could develop a nuclear weapon.  A new president was selected in Iran and suddenly that country has turned a page and is willingly agreeing with demands of the world.  It is too incredible to be taken seriously.

I don’t have to be an expert on nuclear and missile diplomacy to be suspicious of Iran’s ultimate intent.  I only have to look at the time line of events that ultimately led to a North Korea with the ability to shoot nuclear armed missiles at the United   States, Japan, South Korea and most of the nations rimming the Pacific Ocean.

Iran is using the North Korean template to further its development of nuclear weapons that will threaten the world.

The Arms Control Association has posted on its web site Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy along with some extra details from Wikipedia.

Here are the highlights of the sequence of events dealing with North Korea.

December 12, 1985:North Korea accedes to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) but does not complete a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Under Article III of the NPT, North Korea has 18 months to conclude such an arrangement. In coming years, North Korea links adherence to this provision of the treaty to the withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons from South Korea.

September 27, 1991: President George Bush announces the unilateral withdrawal of all naval and land-based tactical nuclear weapons deployed abroad. Approximately 100 U.S. nuclear weapons had been based in South Korea. Eight days later, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev reciprocates.

January 30, 1992: More than six years after signing the NPT, North Korea concludes a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

February 9, 1993: The IAEA demands special inspections of two sites that are believed to store nuclear waste. The request is based on strong evidence that North Korea has been cheating on its commitments under the NPT. North Korea refuses the IAEA’s request.

Late 1993: The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Defense Intelligence Agency estimate that North Korea had separated about 12 kilograms of plutonium. This amount is enough for at least one or two nuclear weapons.

January 1994: The director of the CIA estimates that North Korea may have produced one or two nuclear weapons.

June 15, 1994: Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter negotiates a deal with North Korea in which Pyongyang confirms its willingness to “freeze” its nuclear weapons program and resume high-level talks with the United States. Bilateral talks are expected to begin, provided that North Korea allows the IAEA safeguards to remain in place, does not refuel its 5-megawatt nuclear reactor, and does not reprocess any spent nuclear fuel.

October 16, 1996: After detecting North Korean preparations for a test of its medium-range Nodong missile, the United States deploys a reconnaissance ship and aircraft to Japan. Following several meetings in New York between U.S. and North Korean diplomats, the State Department confirms on November 8 that the missile test has been canceled.

July 15, 1998: The bipartisan Rumsfeld Commission concludes that the United States may have “little or no warning” before facing a long-range ballistic missile threat from “rogue states,” such as North Korea and Iran.

September 9, 1999: A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate reports that North Korea will “most likely” develop an ICBM capable of delivering a 200-kilogram warhead to the U.S. mainland by 2015.

January 14, 2005: North Korea says it is willing to restart stalled talks on its nuclear programme, according to the official KCNA news agency. The statement says North Korea “would not stand against the US but respect and treat it as a friend unless the latter slanders the former’s system and interferes in its internal affairs”.

January 24, 2013: The North Korean National Defense Commission announces its intentions to conduct another nuclear test and continue rocket launches.

March 13, 2013: North Korea confirmed it ended the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement, declaring that North Korea “is not restrained by the North-South declaration on non-aggression” and warned that the next step was an act of “merciless” military retaliation against its enemies.

March 26, 2013: The U.S. again dispatched B-52 bombers from Guam to overfly South Korean territory as part of the ongoing Foal Eagle exercise. These flights were, according to US Department of Defense sources, routine flights intended to demonstrate America’s capability of maintaining a “continuous bomber presence” in the region.

March 30,2013: North Korea declared a ‘state of war’ against South Korea. A North Korean statement promised “stern physical actions” against “any provocative act”. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared that rockets were ready to be fired at American bases in the Pacific. This was in response to two nuclear-capable American B-2 stealth bombers flying over the Korean peninsula on March 28.

Debate About Everything Except the Economy & Jobs

 I do not know if CNN agreed to avoid talking about the number one issue in America or if it just turned out that way.  Wolf Blitzer certainly knows what is the number one issue on the minds of most Americans.  At least one of the candidates in tonight’s debate pointed out that the unemployment rate for Florida is an official 9.9% and most likely is closer to 18%.  Despite those facts there was no discussion about creating jobs in Florida or anywhere else in the United States.

It was most opportune that Cisco had a cartoon ad showing a factory that had no human beings. The robots were so smart that one was able to repair the other without any human interaction.  Is this really possible?  Today’s Los Angeles Times had a report on drones that are smart enough to land on an aircraft carrier.  Those drones are so smart they can select their targets without human participation.

 The candidates spent 15 minutes talking about illegal immigration.  Thanks to the high Latino population of Florida there was discussion about Latin America,Cuba, and Puerto Rican statehood.  Of course “who can claim the Reagan mantle?” was time-wasting exercise.  The question of “why your wife would make a great first lady” was another time waster.

 Issues that should have been discussed are America’s AA+ credit rating, the lack of decent paying jobs, the deterioration of our industrial base, the state of America’s infrastructure, and Iranian nuclear ambitions.  Those are real issues that require real thought not sound bites.

All the candidates want to become president but none were acting presidential.