OK we may be getting to close to a recession but the country is not there yet. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dating committee is the generally recognized arbiter of the dates of the beginnings and ends of recessions. Two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP is commonly taken to be a recession. However, by the time the data to make a determination is accumulated the recession may be well on its way and perhaps have ended.
Business Week magazine economist, James C. Cooper, detailed indicators that usually proceed most recessions in an issue this past spring. The indicators are 1)weekly job claims [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 387], 2) monthly job losses [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 114,000], 3) ISM Manufacturing Index [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 44.1], 4) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 49.3]. I set up a spread sheet to track those indicators and as of this date only one of those measurements have reached those criteria. Weekly job claims are over 457,000.
It’s easy to write this when you have a job or have sufficient income to meet you daily needs and still have money to go out to dinner. So I am not personally facing what is clearly a national economic crisis. I know three people who have lost their jobs as the result of the economic downturn. The economy is frightening us too.
With the election just a month away all of us have to listen to the candidate’s plans and ideas to speed up a recovery. I know I will be listening.
Coast Contact 