January Forecasts the Stock Market

Since 1950, the Standard & Poor 500’s performance in January of each year has been a pretty accurate indicator of how the stock market would perform for the entire year. There were only six years when the S&P 500’s January results went in one direction and the index moved significantly in the opposite direction for the full year, a forecasting accuracy of 90 percent. This history has been thoroughly discussed in the January 10, 2010 Pittsburgh Post Gazette. The Market Oracle in the UK wrote about the same phenomena on January 6, 2010. Even Mark Hulbert acknowledges the history of the January indicator although he does point out some flaws that I have not been able to verify.

January 2010 has been dismal for the market. Let’s face it, the economy sucks. I will be watching for growth indicators but right now the January theory is the one I will follow.

It’s Called Assimilation

It is reported by Sphere.com that “French lawmakers said they want to ban Muslim women from veiling their faces in public facilities, a plan applauded by some French Muslim women but criticized by Muslim leaders, who said it could provoke Islamic extremists in France and abroad.”

The Toronto Star reports Quebec, Canada is the province that requires all schools to conduct their classes in French. The street names are all in French. Most of the people conduct their lives using French. Of Montreal’s five newspapers only one is written in English. To become a citizen of Quebec new immigrants must attend “culture lessons” and that the application for citizenship in Quebec requires applicants to sign a declaration agreeing to abide by the province’s values.

When you move to most nations you must learn to conform to their culture. However, the United States is different. Here we accept everyone including those who do not share American values. That acceptance of everyone has resulted in Mexicans, Chinese, and many others living in isolated communities where they never have to speak anything but their native language even though they are second and third generation Americans.

Those people who refuse to participate in the American melting pot are similar to those immigrants that pass up citizenship in Quebec.

Yes, I am pointing to the Latino population in the states bordering Mexico. At an ever increasing pace their numbers are growing larger. So much so that by 2050 the State of California is projecting that the Hispanic population will exceed 52% in 2050. There is no law that requires English usage or that makes English the official language of the state or the nation.

I believe the French and Québécois are correct in wanting immigrants to conform to their native societies. The United States ought to have similar requirements for those wanting to immigrate to this nation. It’s called assimilation.

Fox News Is The Clear Cable Leader

If there’s any doubt about the mood and interest of the electorate, take a look at the cable television rankings. The recent election night of January 19, 2010 comparison of viewers of FOX programming, which generally takes a right of center position to extreme right to MSNBC programming which generally takes a liberal point of view to CNN that tries to stay neutral but tends to be center to left of center. These numbers definitely say Americans are more to the right of center. Then again there are 300 million people in the United States. Perhaps we need more information like what are the ages of this viewing audience?

FOXNEWS HANNITY 6,809,000

FOXNEWS GRETA 6,399,000

FOXNEWS O’REILLY 5,228,000

FOXNEWS BECK 3,446,000

FOXNEWS BAIER 3,338,000

FOXNEWS SHEP 3,241,000

CNN KING 1,681,000

CNN COOPER 1,508,000

CNN BROWN 1,308,000

MSNBC OLBERMANN 1,274,000

MSNBC MADDOW 1,236,000

CNN BLITZER 1,135,000

CNNHN BEHAR 845,000

MSNBC HARDBALL 798,000

Repair California Now

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is living in his own world. Perhaps he thought being governor was an acting roll. After all wasn’t Ronald Reagan governor of this state? Or, maybe he thinks he can write the scripts for everyone like they do in the movies. The problem is he is not a writer. The part he has now requires more than just acting. He really is the governor of California.

His script, he wrote it, was to support President Obama on the issue of health care. Then he changed the lines to denounce the health care bill. Now he is looking to Washington for $6.9 Billion to balance the state budget. Apparently no one told him the political process. “You support me on something I want and I will support you on something you want.”

Perhaps California will get the money it needs but it going to be our congressman and senators who will get the job done. As Sherry Bebitch Jeffe has written, “Biting the Feds Hand Won’t Bring Money to California.”

What California needs is a revised constitution that will provide the means to manage our state. That is the effort being made by Repair California. It’s a grass routes group that is now ciruclating petitions for just hat purpose. Click on the link and learn how you can help.

A New Day for Journalism

I received two messages today that are telling the future of the internet. It’s going to cost more to obtain the news and data than it does today!

You want access to the Wall Street Journal? The cost is $1.99 per week. That was their ad. The New York Times will charge for access in 2011.

What can the print world do? Newspapers and magazines are losing money and many will be going out of business. Newsweek doesn’t provide news anymore. Now it is a magazine of essays and that isn’t working well. Last week’s Newsweek (dated January 18, 2010) had 84 pages. This week’s Newsweek has 52 pages.

Consumer’s Reports subscription includes on-line access for $26.00 per year. Without on-line access the cost is $19.00. If you just want on line access for a month the cost is $5.95.

I expect that all daily newspapers and most magazines will be offering their on-line access for a fee within the next two years.

What Would Teddy Do?

Martha Coakley has been a dud of a candidate for the senatorial seat that was held by Teddy Kennedy. Reports indicate that she concluded that by winning the primary, her election was guaranteed simply because of the two to one Democratic Party majority registration in Massachusetts. Her campaign efforts have been poor at best. Perhaps this situation will be an indicator of things to come in California (a wake up call?).

Would Teddy Kennedy approve of the health care bill awaiting reconciliation? After all, the bill is too long and complicated. In all honesty it will probably cost money not save money. Medicare will be impacted by this law’s passage. So the election of Massachusetts State Senator Scott Brown may hurt the Democrats but might save our nation from a bureaucratic and financial nightmare.