The Auto Industry Fix

Thomas L. Friedman is one of my favorite columnists.  He is author of The World is Flat and Hot Flat and Crowded.  His ideas on fixing the auto industry are almost identical to mine. This column appeared in the New York Times and I have copied it here.  He is so correct when he points out that Steve Jobs would be the right man to fix G.M.  Congressional efforts to save the auto industry  may have to wait until Barack Obama is president.

 

How to Fix a Flat

  

Published: November 11, 2008

Last September, I was in a hotel room watching CNBC early one morning. They were interviewing Bob Nardelli, the C.E.O. of Chrysler, and he was explaining why the auto industry, at that time, needed $25 billion in loan guarantees. It wasn’t a bailout, he said. It was a way to enable the car companies to retool for innovation. I could not help but shout back at the TV screen: “We have to subsidize Detroit so that it will innovate? What business were you people in other than innovation?” If we give you another $25 billion, will you also do accounting?

 

How could these companies be so bad for so long? Clearly the combination of a very un-innovative business culture, visionless management and overly generous labor contracts explains a lot of it. It led to a situation whereby General Motors could make money only by selling big, gas-guzzling S.U.V.’s and trucks. Therefore, instead of focusing on making money by innovating around fuel efficiency, productivity and design, G.M. threw way too much energy into lobbying and maneuvering to protect its gas guzzlers.

This included striking special deals with Congress that allowed the Detroit automakers to count the mileage of gas guzzlers as being more than they really were — provided they made some cars flex-fuel capable for ethanol. It included special offers of $1.99-a-gallon gasoline for a year to any customer who purchased a gas guzzler. And it included endless lobbying to block Congress from raising the miles-per-gallon requirements. The result was an industry that became brain dead.

Nothing typified this more than statements like those of Bob Lutz, G.M.’s vice chairman. He has been quoted as saying that hybrids like the Toyota Prius “make no economic sense.” And, in February, D Magazine of Dallas quoted him as saying that global warming “is a total crock of [expletive].”

These are the guys taxpayers are being asked to bail out.

And please, spare me the alligator tears about G.M.’s health care costs. Sure, they are outrageous. “But then why did G.M. refuse to lift a finger to support a national health care program when Hillary Clinton was pushing for it?” asks Dan Becker, a top environmental lobbyist.

Not every automaker is at death’s door. Look at this article that ran two weeks ago on autochannel.com: “ALLISTON, Ontario, Canada — Honda of Canada Mfg. officially opened its newest investment in Canada — a state-of-the art $154 million engine plant. The new facility will produce 200,000 fuel-efficient four-cylinder engines annually for Civic production in response to growing North American demand for vehicles that provide excellent fuel economy.”

The blame for this travesty not only belongs to the auto executives, but must be shared equally with the entire Michigan delegation in the House and Senate, virtually all of whom, year after year, voted however the Detroit automakers and unions instructed them to vote. That shielded General Motors, Ford and Chrysler from environmental concerns, mileage concerns and the full impact of global competition that could have forced Detroit to adapt long ago.

Indeed, if and when they do have to bury Detroit, I hope that all the current and past representatives and senators from Michigan have to serve as pallbearers. And no one has earned the “honor” of chief pallbearer more than the Michigan Representative John Dingell, the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee who is more responsible for protecting Detroit to death than any single legislator.

O.K., now that I have all that off my chest, what do we do? I am as terrified as anyone of the domino effect on industry and workers if G.M. were to collapse. But if we are going to use taxpayer money to rescue Detroit, then it should be done along the lines proposed in The Wall Street Journal on Monday by Paul Ingrassia, a former Detroit bureau chief for that paper.

“In return for any direct government aid,” he wrote, “the board and the management [of G.M.] should go. Shareholders should lose their paltry remaining equity. And a government-appointed receiver — someone hard-nosed and nonpolitical — should have broad power to revamp G.M. with a viable business plan and return it to a private operation as soon as possible. That will mean tearing up existing contracts with unions, dealers and suppliers, closing some operations and selling others and downsizing the company … Giving G.M. a blank check — which the company and the United Auto Workers union badly want, and which Washington will be tempted to grant — would be an enormous mistake.”

I would add other conditions: Any car company that gets taxpayer money must demonstrate a plan for transforming every vehicle in its fleet to a hybrid-electric engine with flex-fuel capability, so its entire fleet can also run on next generation cellulosic ethanol.

Lastly, somebody ought to call Steve Jobs, who doesn’t need to be bribed to do innovation, and ask him if he’d like to do national service and run a car company for a year. I’d bet it wouldn’t take him much longer than that to come up with the G.M. iCar.

 

A version of this article appeared in print on November 12, 2008, on page A31 of the New York edition.

Top 10 New Deal Programs

Conservatives and Republicans seem to be opposed to New Deal style programs. Conservative talk radio hosts and their guests point out that many of the programs initiated by FDR were a failure.  We are talking about jobs that at the very least will provide an income for the hundreds of thousands of people who have lost their jobs during this past year.  Putting people to work on the many neglected infrastructure needs of our nation is a positive not a negative.  The new administration should follow FDR’s lead.

About.com offered these ten New Deal programs as that someone views as FDR’s best ideas.  Some of them did not work out as he had hoped.  There are three that have impacted America to this day in a very big way.  They are identified in bold below.   

1. CCC – Civilian Conservation Corps

The Civilian Conservation Corps was created in 1933 by Franklin D. Roosevelt to combat unemployment. This work relief program had the desired effect and provided jobs for many Americans during the Great Depression. The CCC was responsible for building many public works and created structures and trails in parks across the nation.

http://www.ccclegacy.org/ccc_legacy.htm

                

2. CWA – Civil Works Administration

The Civil Works Administration was created in 1933 to create jobs for the unemployed. Its focus on high paying jobs in the construction arena resulted in a much greater expense to the federal government than originally anticipated. The CWA ended in 1934 in large part due to opposition to its cost.

                

3. FHA – Federal Housing Administration

The Federal Housing Administration was a government agency created to combat the housing crisis of the Great Depression. The large number of unemployed workers combined with the banking crisis created a situation in which banks recalled loans. The FHA was designed to regulate mortgages and housing conditions.

 

4. FSA – Federal Security Agency

The Federal Security Agency established in 1939 had the responsibility for several important government entities. Until it was abolished in 1953, it administered social security, federal education funding, and food and drug safety.

 

5. HOLC – Home Owner’s Loan Corporation

The Home Owner’s Loan Corporation was created in 1933 to assist in the refinancing of homes. The housing crisis created a great many foreclosures, and Franklin Roosevelt hoped this new agency would stem the tide. In fact, between 1933 and 1935 one million people received long term loans through the agency that saved their homes from foreclosure.

 

6. NRA – National Recovery Act

The National Recovery Act was designed to bring the interests of working class Americans and business together. Through hearings and government intervention the hope was to balance the needs of all involved in the economy. However, the NRA was declared unconstitutional in the landmark Supreme Court case Schechter Poultry Corp. v. US. The Supreme Court ruled that the NRA violated the separation of powers.

 

7. PWA – Public Works Administration

The Public Works Administration was a program created to provide economic stimulus and jobs during the Great Depression. The PWA was designed to create public works and continued until the US ramped up wartime production for World War II. It ended in 1941.

 

8. SSA – Social Security Act

The Social Security Act was designed to combat the widespread poverty among senior citizens. The government program provided income to retired wage earners. The program has become one of the most popular government programs and is funded by current wage earners and their employers. However, in recent years concerns have arisen about the viability of continuing to fund the program as the Baby Boom generation reaches retirement age.

 

9. TVA – Tennessee Valley Authority

The Tennessee Valley Authority was established in 1933 to develop the economy in the Tennessee Valley region which had been hit extremely hard by the Great Depression. The TVA was and is a federally owned corporation that works in this region to this day. It is the largest public provider of electricity in the United States.

 

10. WPA – Works Progress Administration

The Works Progress Administration was created in 1935. As the largest New Deal Agency, the WPA impacted millions of Americans. It provided jobs across the nation. Because of it, numerous roads, buildings, and other projects were completed. It was renamed the Works Projects Administration in 1939. It officially ended in 1943.

Impact Your Life and Career Now

Fortune Magazine is my second favorite business periodical.  My first choice is Business Week.  Fortune has been telling all of us who the biggest corporations (The Fortune 500) are in the whole world for decades..  The magazine has offered interviews with many of the world’s wealthiest people.  Recently I found a Fortune Magazine book mark that offered these 3 Skills You Can Improve Right Now.

Improving these business skills can have a big impact on your career.

1) PUBLIC SPEAKING

Conquer fear with a game plan.

·       Podiums disconnect you from the audience.  Grab the mike and wander the stage.

·       Eye contact is your friend.  Looking at people one by one shrinks the room.

·       Questions.  If you stumped, talk about your team: “We’re lucky to have an expert on that.  I’ll get you in touch with him later.”

2) NEGOTIATING SKILLS

Using the right phrases matters.

·       How did you come up with that number?  Opens a window into the other side’s thoughts.

·       Let me check with my wife. Or husband or boss.  Stops you from saying yes prematurely.

·       If things change give me a call.  Put the burden on them.

3)  MEMORY SKILLS

Never confuse Don with John again.

·       Introduce yourself first so you can focus on the other person.

·       Connect he name to your brain.  When you meet a guy named Bill, think of other Bills you know.

·       Use the name three times. Once to confirm you have the name right, then in mid-conversation, and again when you say good-bye.

A Nightmarish Impact On Our Economy

I am sorry to report that I was correct on August 8, 2007 when I predicted American Auto Manufacturing Is Coming To An End!  The AP reported Chrysler’s U.S. sales are down 25 percent through September of this year, the worst decline of any major automaker.  Both Ford and General Motors are barely surviving and have seriously reduced their needed R&D.

 

But wait, America’s auto manufacturers and their suppliers employ more than 2 million people.  Whether the next president is Barack Obama or John McCain the U.S. government will not allow a failure of companies that will significantly impact the employment of millions of people.

 

How will the government save GM, Ford and Chrysler?  The U.S. government will take an ownership position similar to the ownership of banks and Wall Street investment houses that was just recently approved by Congress.

 

The pain of divesting U.S. government ownership of these failed companies is going to take years.  Our capitalist philosophy is that non-competitive business cease will force the auto manufacturers to either perform or close.  Then again the federal government has threatened to withhold aid to Amtrak but has never followed through with the plan.  It’s all about jobs.

 

Barack Obama’s idea of creating new jobs in a new greener America may be the avenue to a more robust economy.  He says his proposals will create 5 million jobs.  A good place to start is replacing the lost jobs in auto manufacturing.

U.S. Manufacturing and Competitiveness

In the 1950s General Motors sales exceeded 50% of total auto sales in the United States. Imported cars amounted to only small percentage of that total. By 1992 the Ford Taurus was the best selling car and Honda was on its tail.  In 1995 all the American car companies were feeling quite successful despite the growing size of Japanese imports.  Today the “Big Three” is on the verge of becoming the “Little Two” as more and more Americans buy cars from foreign manufacturers.

 

At the same time as cars are coming from foreign manufacturers we have seen appliances, clothing, and almost everything else we buy come from other nations.  The manufacturing base of our nation has deteriorated to such an extent that the population of our Midwestern industrial complex has no place to work.  This has been the result of big corporations moving their manufacturing to other nations that have lower labor costs.  Unfortunately American car manufacturers are not in that category.  They are failing due to the second rate quality of their cars.  Quality of products has been a big issue for American manufacturers.  We used to laugh at the inferior quality of Japanese goods and they have more than overcome that stigma.  China is now going through a similar phase and it’s likely they too will overcome their quality issues.  Many United States manufacturers have not yet address the issue of quality. 

 

I know.  I worked for American manufacturers for 45 years.  There were always new quality programs being installed.  Most of them really did not work.  The reason is that the workers themselves were not devoted to producing quality products.  This is not a government issue.  A free society does not enable government interference in private enterprise.  Government can encourage job development though tax incentives but cannot involve itself in the operation of any company.

 

Michael E. Porter, a Harvard Business School authority on American competitiveness suggests in a Business Week article that the United States needs a long term strategy to resusitate our manufacturing prowess.  I believe he is correct.  The problem is that our government lacks the will to develop this plan.  The reason is that lobbyists and special interests have more influence on Congress than the real needs of our nation.

     

I intend to write about U.S. manufacturing and competitiveness in many of my future blog entries.

SOCIALISM

I thought I might be a socialist until I read these definitions.

 

Webster’s New World Dictionary offers this definition:  

1   any of various theories or systems of the ownership and operation of the means of production and distribution by society or the community rather than by private individuals, with all members of society or the community sharing in the work and the products

2   [often S3] a) a political movement for establishing such a system b) the doctrines, methods, etc. of the Socialist parties

3   the stage of society, in Marxist doctrine, coming between the capitalist stage and the communist stage, in which private ownership of the means of production and distribution has been eliminated: see COMMUNISM (sense 2)

 

I listened to all the commentators and have read a few other explanations of our economy and concluded that I am a student of Adam Smith with two exceptions.  Totally uncontrolled markets can lead to greed and monopolies.  Greed has led this nation to its current situation.  Senior executives of large corporations are earning an average of $4,000 per hour.  These high earnings are reported to be common among Wall Street managers too.

 

One need to go no further than the preamble to our constitution to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity…”  In order to ensure domestic tranquility and promote general welfare our nation needs to pass laws that limit the power of a few that would work against our general welfare.

 

This does not mean we need socialism.  It means we enforce what are known as antitrust law in the United States.  From Wkipedia

Competition law, known in the United States as antitrust law, has three main elements:

  • prohibiting agreements or practices that restrict free trading and competition between business entities. This includes in particular the repression of cartels.
  • banning abusive behaviour by a firm dominating a market, or anti-competitive practices that tend to lead to such a dominant position. Practices controlled in this way may include predatory pricing, tying, price gouging, refusal to deal, and many others.
  • supervising the mergers and acquisitions of large corporations, including some joint ventures. Transactions that are considered to threaten the competitive process can be prohibited altogether, or approved subject to “remedies” such as an obligation to divest part of the merged business or to offer licences or access to facilities to enable other businesses to continue competing.

The banking industry has been given free reign in its management.  I and my wife were offered opportunities for new credit cards daily over the past few years.  We accepted two of those offers increasing the number of cards from two to four.  I have read that the average person has 13 credit cards.  Fareed Zakaria pointed out in the October 20, 2008 issue of Newsweek that household debt was $680 billion in 1974 and now amounts to $14 trillion.  Type in the words “there is a silver lining” into Google and you will see that his column has struck a significant cord.

 

John McCain is an adherent of the free markets philosophy that has brought our nation to this economic meltdown.  Barack Obama has avoided taking a position.  Given the philosophies of the Democrats and Republicans I have to anticipate that Barack Obama’s election will bring the needed regulations that will promote our general welfare.  It won’t be socialism.

Class Warfare

There is class warfare in America.  It’s the middle class versus the wealthy.  As I pointed out in my posting of July 29, 2008 socialism for the rich is OK if it is sponsored by the Republican Party and directed by the past CEO of Goldman Sachs.  As has been stated on many television shows discussing American wealth, 1% of the population owns 50% of our nation.  The CEO of Bank of America was discussing his company on 60 Minutes this evening.  It was pointed out that his annual salary is $25 million.

 

Mexico is a country where a few families own most of that nation. Carlos Slim and his family are reported to own or control 20% of the country.  When CNN’s John King asks if there should be a limit on any individual’s salary the answer is perhaps there ought to be some kind of cap.  Oops! Does this make me a communist?  No.  I just believe there needs to be controls or the United States will begin to look like Mexico.  

This Country Needs a Manufacturing Base

There is not a country in the world that has thrived without an agricultural, mining or manufacturing base.  Today those nations include China, Taiwan, Japan, Germany, Russia, and Iran, Brazil, and Canada.  The United States is part of that group too but this nation has seen a significant decline in its manufacturing.  Charlie Gibson on ABC News was reporting from Racine, Wisconsin when he pointed out that the town has always been a manufacturing town.  The problem is that the United States has been shedding manufacturing jobs for many years.

 

If you look at the GDP over the years going back to 1967 you find that manufacturing as a percentage of the total has continuously declined.  In that year manufacturing was 25.2% of GDP.  By 1987 manufacturing had declined to 17.1 %. That was not the end of the decline as it was down to less than 12% in 2005.

 

When I was in college in the early 1960s there were 30 million people in labor unions.  Today the number has declined to 15 million.  The reason is the shedding of manufacturing jobs.

 

Automobile manufacturing has been one of the industries that personifies American manufacturing know how.  The problem is that the Japanese, the Germans, and others have taken the lead from the American companies.  It’s no wonder.  The auto manufacturers in those countries have delivered cars with better quality and higher gasoline efficiency.  General Motors share of the U.S. market in 1954 was 54% and imports were play things for the rich.  The VW would not arrive in significant numbers until 1955.  We all know what happened next.  Japan developed superior quality control and that made the names Honda and Toyota synonymous with the word quality.  I remember asking an employee of mine in 1983, after he had completed his assignment, “Is that Toyota quality?”   

 

Unless the United States returns to its manufacturing roots and does it better than the rest our nation is in for a very difficult 21st century.   

 

Who Is In Charge?

If ever there was a case of ineffective government it is the AIG scandal.  After bailing out that company with $85 billion the government had to provide another $37.8 billion loan.  To add insult to injury AIG held a $400,000 party at a very expensive California hotel resort.  Oh well it’s just to motivate the sales people so it’s OK.  It has been reported that another party of the same size will occur next week.

 

Our Congress has authorized $700 billion to be spent on a “recovery plan” which really is a bail out of our financial markets.  Where will all that money go?  Well it won’t be to the taxpayers and it won’t be to the homeowners with loans they can’t afford.  We the people have had a gun held to our heads.  They tell us if we don’t support this insane plan it will impact our savings, our banks, and we might lose our jobs.

 

The election is just 27 days away and neither Barack Obama nor John McCain has offered a coherent plan to resolve our economic problems.  Barack Obama was on ABC’s Nightly News and told Charlie Gibson that he would give us the confidence to succeed just as FDR did.  The difference is that FDR offered specifics in the form of real action.  Obama simply said we will try different things until we find the ones that work.  Wow! How inspiring!

We Are Not In a Recession

OK we may be getting to close to a recession but the country is not there yet.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dating committee is the generally recognized arbiter of the dates of the beginnings and ends of recessions.  Two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP is commonly taken to be a recession.  However, by the time the data to make a determination is accumulated the recession may be well on its way and perhaps have ended.

 

Business Week magazine economist, James C. Cooper, detailed indicators that usually proceed most recessions in an issue this past spring.  The indicators are 1)weekly job claims [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 387], 2) monthly job losses [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 114,000], 3) ISM Manufacturing Index [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 44.1], 4) ISM Non-Manufacturing Index [average, first 3 months of last two recessions 49.3]. I set up a spread sheet to track those indicators and as of this date only one of those measurements have reached those criteria.  Weekly job claims are over 457,000.

 

It’s easy to write this when you have a job or have sufficient income to meet you daily needs and still have money to go out to dinner.  So I am not personally facing what is clearly a national economic crisis.  I know three people who have lost their jobs as the result of the economic downturn. The economy is frightening us too.

 

With the election just a month away all of us have to listen to the candidate’s plans and ideas to speed up a recovery.  I know I will be listening.